DETROIT – Are you frustrated with the Detroit Tigers? Then you’ve come to the right place. It’s safe here. You’re not alone.
All in all, the Tigers have had a pretty successful first 40 games. They’re 20-20 with a positive run differential (+3) and 4.5 games out in the AL Central Division. It could certainly be a lot worse.
But the way they’ve gotten here... yeah, not fun. It’s a brand of baseball that requires pretty much everyone on the roster to walk a very thin line. And it can make for a maddening brand of baseball.
Offensive issues
The Tigers still have major problems on offense. Over their past 12 games, they’ve scored 11 runs twice and eight runs once. But they’ve also been held to three or fewer runs seven times, and four twice.
That offensive inconsistency creates immense pressure for the pitching staff.
Take Jack Flaherty, for example. He’s been phenomenal in his first eight starts with the Tigers, posting a 3.88 ERA and 1.05 WHIP while striking out 63 batters in 48.2 innings. His underlying metrics are even better: a 3.01 xERA and top-10 percentile rankings in whiff, strikeout, and walk rates.
Flaherty has been one of the very pitchers in MLB so far. And yet, he’s still looking for his first win of the season.
Pitching wins don’t really matter, but it says a lot about the Tigers that Flaherty hasn’t gotten a single victory in eight starts. The most egregious example was when he went 6.2 shutout innings and struck out 14 Cardinals, only to watch a slim 1-0 lead erased in the ninth.
Detroit ranks outside the top 20 MLB teams in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, stolen bases, hits, home runs, and, of course, runs scored. The Tigers grade out fairly well in quality of contact, but that’s been negated by a combination of strikeouts and bad luck.
Bullpen struggles
The Tigers found a way to survive their offensive issues early in the season because they were elite up and down the pitching staff. But over the past few weeks, the bullpen is nearly as much to blame for the team’s struggles as the lineup.
Andrew Chafin couldn’t close out a victory in Cleveland that would have given the Tigers a critical series win over the division leader. He allowed a game-tying homer in the ninth inning and the Tigers ultimately lost in extra innings.
The very next game, Chafin inherited a one-run lead against the Astros and gave up three runs without recording an out, securing another loss.
Shelby Miller was extremely reliable early in the season, but he single-handedly blew the Flaherty 14-strikeout game and then imploded against the Yankees, allowing three runs while recording just one out after coming into a tied game.
Jason Foley hasn’t saved a game since April 28. Amazingly, that’s also the last time he struck out a batter. In his only save opportunity since, Foley allowed all four batters to reach without recording an out.
In 15.1 innings this season, Foley has just 13 strikeouts to go with seven walks and a 1.50 WHIP. That simply isn’t going to cut it. Right now, he’s basically a ground ball specialist who does nothing else well.
Mental miscues
I’m not going to go back through all of them, because none of us need that on a Monday morning, but perhaps the most frustrating part of this Tigers season so far is the tendency to make a backbreaking mistake that can sink a whole game.
One example came during the series finale in Cleveland, when Reese Olson allowed the leadoff runner to reach base and then induced just about the easiest double play ball you’ll ever see.
Andy Ibanez, who was the previous night’s hero with four hits and a pair of homers, missed a perfect throw at second base, and instead of two outs with nobody on base, the Guardians were handed a rally with two on and no outs. They went on to score two runs that inning, and won in extras.
Remember the popup that dropped in between Wenceel Perez and Parker Meadows in Minnesota? A two-out double later in the inning erased a 4-2 lead.
Those are only two examples, but the Tigers have made several others, from defensive miscues to base running gaffes.
Why is it all so frustrating?
So now that I’ve got you nice and worked up, let’s really get to the bottom of our frustration.
We’ve waited a decade for playoff baseball in Detroit, and other than 2016, none of the other eight seasons since 2014 have even given us any hope.
So when the Tigers got off to a nice start, it felt like maybe this year could be different.
But even the most optimistic fans know this team has a small margin for error. The roster isn’t good enough to give away games and still compete for a playoff spot, and the first quarter of the season kind of feels like a missed opportunity.
The Tigers were five games above .500 heading into New York two weeks ago. They had won four series in a row. Since then, they’ve lost seven of nine games, and six of those losses could have (or should have) been victories.
That might not seem like a big deal in early May, but if the Tigers are 8-10 games out of the race by August, this is the stretch I’ll remember. Because this team is just a few plays away from being 25-15.
Hopefully the Tigers will bounce back in the coming weeks and remain in the AL Central mix. But the Guardians, Royals, and Twins all look like more complete, consistent teams, and that almost always wins out over 162 games.
I’m still holding onto some of that early season hope, but the Tigers have let plenty of opportunities slip away. That’s why the first 40 games have been so frustrating.