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Study: Detroit Auto Industry Forever Changed

POSTED: Tuesday, November 25, 2008
UPDATED: 7:54 pm EST November 25, 2008

Detroit's Big Three automakers are forever changed by the current credit crisis, according to a study done by a well-known Michigan economics firm.

The study, from Lansing-based Anderson Economic Group, gives a stark peek into the auto business and reports bankruptcy, radical restructuring and even a merger between two of the auto giants are just a few of the limited options the industry has left.

  • Download:Anderson Economic Group Summary

    "Although the metaphor has been abused recently, it is indeed the worst crisis since the Great Depression for the domestic industry," analysts wrote in the summary of their findings.

    Based on the first three quarters of 2008 sales released by Ford Motor Co., Chrysler LLC and General Motors Corp., the study projects annual sales may be less than 10.5 million units.

    That number is down from 16 million in 2007, a nearly 40 percent drop.

    The study covers the automakers' CEOs' venture to Washington with the president of the United Auto Workers last week in an effort to lobby Congress for federal aid.

    Analysts write that the lack of reception the CEOs received by Congress "is a rude awakening to the lack of political capital the industry" has in Washington.

    Washington was clear by requiring the automakers to produce detailed restructuring plans before any money would be loaned to them.

    The plans must be submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Chair and Financial Services Committee chairmen by Dec.2.

    The CEOs’ trip to Washington, and their pleas before senators for aid, could affect future car sales.

    "These events cannot have a positive effect on consumer confidence in the automakers, let along creditors, suppliers, and others. In short, the political events have worsened the already bad financial conditions the automakers face," according to the study.

    The study presents six possible scenarios the authors feel are the only viable situations left for automakers.

    The scenarios are broken down into whether the automakers are given federal aid by January 2009.

    According to the study, bankruptcy is "a real possibility" but that a "prepackaged" bankruptcy would be a failure.

    The study also reports that analysts believe bankruptcy by one of the Big Three would not deflate the others.

    "The most likely scenario is some kind of federal bridge loan and GM and Chrysler merger," Ilhan Geckil of the Anderson Economic Group told Local 4. "But what we are saying if that’s not going to happen, then Chrysler is going to Chapter 11 for reorganization. No matter what happened after Chapter 11, we are thinking Cerberus is going to be out of the business, the auto investment business, and Chrysler is not going to be a separate entity."

    On a more positive note, analysts write in the study that they disagree "with the notion that the entire industry is a herd of 'dinosaurs' or that the Detroit 3 do not produce vehicles Americans want."

    The next 18 months are both critical and full of possibility for automakers, according to the study.
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