Michigan's Presidential Election is scheduled for Nov. 6.
Ahead of election day The Glengariff Group, Inc. conducted a 600-sample survey of likely 2012 Michigan General Election voters. The live operator telephone survey was conducted from August 18-20, 2012. 80% of the survey respondents were contact via land-line. 20% of survey respondents were contacted via cell phone. The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.0% with a 95% level of confidence. This survey was commissioned by WDIV Local 4, the Detroit News and WZZM.
Here are the results:
Are you voting?
Thinking about the upcoming Presidential election in November, would you say are definitely voting, probably voting, probably not voting, definitely not voting, or would you say you have already voted absentee?
How is President Obama doing?
Would you say you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President of the United States?
Is the nation on the right track?
Generally speaking would you say the nation is on the right track or would you say things have gotten off on the wrong track?
Who would you vote for?
If the election for President of the United States were held today and Barack Obama was the Democratic candidate and Mitt Romney was the Republican candidate, would you vote for Mitt Romney or Barack Obama to be President of the United States?
President Barack Obama holds a 47.5%-42.0% lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney, with 9.3% of voters undecided. The race remains stuck with little movement since May 2012 when President Obama held a 45.1%-39.5% lead over Mitt Romney.
- Among male voters the race is statistically tied at 44.7% Barack Obama – 45.0% Mitt Romney.
- Among female voters, Barack Obama holds a 50.4%-39.0% lead over Mitt Romney. This 11.4% lead is statistically unchanged from a 12.0% lead in our May 2012 survey.
- Barack Obama holds a lead of 82.2%-8.8% among African American voters with 7.6% undecided. Among Caucasian voters, Mitt Romney holds a 48.5%-40.8% lead with 9.7% undecided.
- Among voters aged 65 and older, the race is statistically tied at 43% Obama – 44% Romney.
- Mitt Romney holds a narrow lead of 41.3%-38.7% among Independent voters.
- Among union households, Barack Obama holds a 55.5%-36.7% lead. Among non union households, the candidates are tied with Barack Obama at 44.9% and Mitt Romney at 44.5%.
- Regionally, Barack Obama continues to hold a 47%-42% lead among Oakland County voters. Mitt Romney leads in Macomb County by a margin of 46%-40%. In Wayne County, non Detroit Barack Obama holds a strong 55.6%-32.8% lead. And in the City of Detroit, Barack Obama holds an 85.0%-2.5% lead.
Romney’s likability deficit
Respondents were asked if they had a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.
- By a margin of 47.5%-44.5%, voters have a favorable opinion of Barack Obama.
- By a margin of 38.3%-43.8%, voters have an unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney.
This favorability difference becomes more pronounced by gender.
- Men have an unfavorable impression of Barack Obama by a statistically tied 45.7%-46.7% and a favorable impression of Mitt Romney by a statistically tied margin of 43.3%-41.0%.
- But women have a favorable impression of Barack Obama by a margin of 49.3%-42.3 and a strongly unfavorable impression of Mitt Romney by a margin of 33.3%-46.7% -- a 13.4% negative margin.
- Amongst voters that are undecided in the presidential race, Barack Obama has an unfavorable impression of 30.4% favorable to 37.5% unfavorable. 38.3% of undecided voters have no opinion of Barack Obama. Among these same voters, Mitt Romney has an unfavorable impression by a large margin of 19.6% favorable to 37.5% unfavorable. 41.1% of undecided voters have no opinion of Mitt Romney.
Who would you like to have dinner with?
Respondents were asked which candidate they would rather have dinner with and by a margin of 51.3%-31.3%, voters chose Barack Obama over Mitt Romney. Republicans were the only demographic group that would prefer to have dinner with Mitt Romney over Barack Obama.