Ron Paul                                  52.4%              42.9%

Rick Santorum               51.6%              45.1%

Newt Gingrich                          51.1%              48.9%

 

  1. 72.2% of respondents said they were definitely going to vote in this election.  Among those voters, Santorum holds a 35.5%-33.2% lead over Romney, within the survey’s margin of error.

  2. The electorate for this primary election appears to be 70% Republican with an influx of 25% Independent Republican voters.  Less than 5% of likely voters call themselves Democratic.  At this point in time, there does not appear to be a sustained Democratic cross-over vote into the Republican primary.

  3. Among only Republican voters, Santorum holds a strong 40.7%-31.0% lead.   Among Independent voters entering the primary, Romney holds a 31.4%-21.0% lead.  Ron Paul holds a 25.0%-16.7% lead over Mitt Romney among the small block of Democratic voters.

  4. Among voters that said they support the Tea Party, Santorum holds a 40.1%-27.1% lead over Romney.

  5. Among conservative voters, Santorum holds a 44.0%-27.4% lead over Romney.  But among moderate voters, Romney holds a 43.8%-34.4% lead over Santorum.

  6. Santorum holds a 32.8%-28.4% lead over Romney among men.  Santorum holds a 35.2%-32.4% lead over Romney among women.

 

Regional Differences: Oakland/ Northern Michigan Keeping Romney in Race

 

Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney in every region of the state except Northern Michigan and Oakland County. 

Rick Santorum holds a twenty point lead of Mitt Romney in the West Michigan region of Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon counties.

But Mitt Romney holds a 24 point lead of Rick Santorum in Oakland County.  At this point, it appears that Oakland County is keeping Mitt Romney in the statewide race.  

regional-oakland

 

Region                                      Santorum                      Romney                        Gingrich                        Paul

UP/North                                 29.7%                          37.8%                         12.2%                          4.1%

West                                        48.6%                         27.2%                          7.1%                            5.7%

Southwest                                35.6%                         27.1%                          14.6%                          14.6%

Mid                                          26.7%                         24.4%                          15.5%                          15.5%

East Central                              29.8%                          32.0%                         14.9%                          4.2%

Oakland                                   24.1%                          48.0%                         13.2%                          3.6%

Macomb                                  37.5%                         17.5%                          15.0%                          10.0%

Wayne                                     38.0%                         22.0%                          14.0%                          14.0%

Rim around Metro                    39.6%                         21.0%                          9.3%                            7.0%

Congressional District Differences:  Santorum Holds a 9-5 District Leader Over Romney