Michigan’s Republican delegates will be primarily allocated on a winner take all by congressional district.  At this point, Rick Santorum holds a lead outside of the margin of error over Mitt Romney in nine of Michigan’s fourteen congressional districts.  Mitt Romney holds a lead outside of the margin of error over Rick Santorum in five of Michigan’s fourteen congressional districts. 

 

We have included percentages for Gingrich and Paul in districts where they are competitive for delegates. 

District             Santorum          Romney            Gingrich            Paul

1                      30.2%              35.8%

2                      40.0%             26.6% 

3                      46.5%             23.3%                                      17.1%

4                      30.6%              38.9%

5                      40.4%             34.7%

6                      37.1%             22.9%

7                      40.0%              28.6%

8                      20.8%              35.4%             18.6%

9                      35.7%             26.2%              14.3%

10                    35.1%             21.6%                                      21.6%

11                    31.4%              37.3%

12                    35.7%             17.9%             

13                    45.5%             27.3%                                      18.2%

14                    15.4%              61.6%

 

 

Key Selection Factors

 

We offered voters five different factors in selecting the Republican nominee.  For each factor, we asked voters which candidate best reflected that factor.

By better than a two to one margin, voters believe Mitt Romney is a stronger leader than Rick Santorum and can beat Barack Obama. 

But Santorum holds an 18 point advantage over Romney in strong moral character, and a 13 point advantage for "sharing my positions."