DETROIT -

Michigan's General Election is scheduled for Nov. 6.

Ahead of election day The Glengariff Group, Inc. conducted a 600-sample survey of likely 2012 Michigan General Election voters. 

The live operator telephone survey was conducted from September 15-17, 2012.  (The survey was conducted from Saturday afternoon through Monday evening.)  80% of the survey respondents were contact via land-line.  20% of survey respondents were contacted via cell phone.  The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.0% with a 95% level of confidence.  This survey was commissioned by WDIV Local 4, the Detroit News.

Presidential Election

Generally speaking would you say the nation is on the right track or would you say things have gotten off on the wrong track?

Right track        41.3%

Wrong track     50.3%

A closer look:

                        Right    Wrong

UP/North         30.8%  59.0%

West                28.4%  56.7%

Southwest        52.0%  44.0% 

Mid                  38.5%  59.6%

E Central          48.9%  38.3% 

Oakland           40.5%  51.9%

Macomb          44.0%  52.0%

Wayne             31.4%  58.6%

Detroit              80.0%  15.0%

Would you say you are better off or worse off than you were four years ago?

Better   34.8%

Worse  44.5%

A closer look:

                        Better   Worse  Same

UP/North         29.5%  46.2%  24.4%

West                31.3%  46.3%  20.9%

Southwest        48.0%  32.0%  20.0%

Mid                  26.9%  40.4%  32.7%

E Central          46.8%  40.4%  12.8% 

Oakland           26.6%  48.1%  25.3%

Macomb          38.0%  52.0%  10.0%

Wayne             25.7%  51.4%  22.9%

Detroit              60.0%  27.5%  12.5%

And what about the nation.  Do you think it is better off or worse off than it was four years ago?

Better   39.0%

Worse  51.3%

A closer look:

Better  Worse  Same

UP/North         30.8%  57.7%  6.4%

West                34.3%  56.7%  6.0%

Southwest        50.0%  42.0%  6.0%

Mid                  38.5%  55.8%  3.8%

E Central          48.9%  36.2%  6.4%

Oakland           35.4%  55.7%  7.6%

Macomb          38.0%  56.0%  4.0%

Wayne             28.6%  60.0%  11.4%

Detroit              75.0%  15.0%  7.5%

Would you say you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President of the United States? 

Strongly approve          36.3% 

Approve                       56.5%

Somewhat approve       20.2%

Somewhat disapprove  9.7%

If the election for President of the United States were held today and Barack Obama was the Democratic candidate and Mitt Romney was the Republican candidate, would you vote for Mitt Romney or Barack Obama to be President of the United States? 

Definitely Obama 46.5%    

Probably Obama    3.3%            

Definitely Romney 29.5%

Probably Romney   5.8%

Undecided              8.7%      

Which candidate for President do you think would do a better job understanding your values, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Obama  54.3%

Romney 38.7%

Which candidate for President do you think would do a better job of handling our nation’s economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? 

Obama    49.7%

Romney  40.2%

Which candidate for President do you think would do a better job of handling our nation’s foreign affairs, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Obama    55.0%

Romney  34.7%

Which candidate for President do you think would do a better job understanding your values, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Obama   54.3%

Romney 38.7%

KEY FINDINGS

  • President Barack Obama has built a strong 52.0%-38.0% lead over Republican Mitt Romney, with 8.7% of voters undecided.   In our Pre Convention Survey conducted before both political conventions, President Obama held a six point lead at 48%-42%.  
  • While the survey has a +/- 4% margin of error, it is clear that President Obama has opened up a double-digit lead in Michigan coming out of the Democratic Party Convention.  Coming out of their respective conventions, the Democratic Party has been particularly effective in building a coalition of female voters, voters under the age of 30, African American voters, and union voters. 
  • Women continue to be the driving force behind President Obama’s growing lead, but even among male voters President Obama now holds a narrow lead.
  • President Obama led 50%-39% in the pre convention survey among women.  In the post convention survey, President Obama now holds a dominating 57%-37% lead with only 5% of women undecided.
  • President Obama and Mitt Romney were statistically tied among men in the pre-convention survey at 44.7%-44.0%. In the post convention survey, President Obama has taken a 47%-39% lead among men with 12% undecided.

United States Senate Election

If the election for United States Senator was held today and Debbie Stabenow was the Democratic candidate and Pete Hoekstra was the Republican candidate, would you vote for Pete Hoekstra or Debbie Stabenow to be United States Senator for Michigan? 

Definitely Stabenow   42.0% 

Probably Stabenow     6.5%

Lean Stabenow           1.2%

Definitely Hoekstra    24.7% 

Probably Hoekstra      8.3%

Lean Hoekstra            0.8%

Would you say you approve or disapprove of the job Debbie Stabenow is doing as United States Senator from Michigan?

Strongly approve      27.0% 

Approve                 47.7% 

Somewhat approve    20.7%

Somewhat disapprove 12.7%

Strongly disapprove    23.3% 

Disapprove           36.0%

Undecided/Neither 16.2%

KEY FINDINGS

  • Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow holds a 49.7%-33.8% lead over Republican challenger Pete Hoekstra. 
  • Stabenow has 97% name identification breaking 43.3% favorable – 34.5% unfavorable, and 19.0% having no opinion of her.  This is largely unchanged from the pre convention survey where she had a 40.3% favorable – 34.3% unfavorable and 22.3% having no opinion of her. 
  • Pete Hoekstra has 86.5% name identification breaking 22.9% favorable – 32.8% unfavorable, and 30.5% having no opinion of him.  Hoekstra’s name identification is largely unchanged from the pre convention survey when he was 24.3% favorable.  But Hoekstra’s unfavorable has increased from 25.5% to 32.8% -- a 7% unfavorable increase.
  • In the pre convention survey, Stabenow and Hoekstra were statistically tied among men at 44.7%(Hoekstra)/ 43.4% (Stabenow).  In the post convention survey, Stabenow has taken a narrow 4 point lead over Hoekstra among men at 44.0%-39.7%. 
  • Both candidates continue to do well with their party faithful with Stabenow winning 86.4% of strong Democrats and Hoekstra winning 81.0% of strong Republicans.  But Stabenow wins 79.5% of leaning Democrats as compared to Hoekstra winning only 63.2% of leaning Republicans.  Stabenow leads among true Independents by a margin of 33.8%-30.6%.