- President Barack Obama has built a strong 52.0%-38.0% lead over Republican Mitt Romney, with 8.7% of voters undecided. In our Pre Convention Survey conducted before both political conventions, President Obama held a six point lead at 48%-42%.
- While the survey has a +/- 4% margin of error, it is clear that President Obama has opened up a double-digit lead in Michigan coming out of the Democratic Party Convention. Coming out of their respective conventions, the Democratic Party has been particularly effective in building a coalition of female voters, voters under the age of 30, African American voters, and union voters.
- Women continue to be the driving force behind President Obama’s growing lead, but even among male voters President Obama now holds a narrow lead.
- President Obama led 50%-39% in the pre convention survey among women. In the post convention survey, President Obama now holds a dominating 57%-37% lead with only 5% of women undecided.
- President Obama and Mitt Romney were statistically tied among men in the pre-convention survey at 44.7%-44.0%. In the post convention survey, President Obama has taken a 47%-39% lead among men with 12% undecided.
United States Senate Election
If the election for United States Senator was held today and Debbie Stabenow was the Democratic candidate and Pete Hoekstra was the Republican candidate, would you vote for Pete Hoekstra or Debbie Stabenow to be United States Senator for Michigan?
Definitely Stabenow 42.0%
Probably Stabenow 6.5%
Lean Stabenow 1.2%
Definitely Hoekstra 24.7%
Probably Hoekstra 8.3%
Lean Hoekstra 0.8%
Would you say you approve or disapprove of the job Debbie Stabenow is doing as United States Senator from Michigan?
Strongly approve 27.0%
Somewhat approve 20.7%
Somewhat disapprove 12.7%
Strongly disapprove 23.3%
- Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow holds a 49.7%-33.8% lead over Republican challenger Pete Hoekstra.
- Stabenow has 97% name identification breaking 43.3% favorable – 34.5% unfavorable, and 19.0% having no opinion of her. This is largely unchanged from the pre convention survey where she had a 40.3% favorable – 34.3% unfavorable and 22.3% having no opinion of her.
- Pete Hoekstra has 86.5% name identification breaking 22.9% favorable – 32.8% unfavorable, and 30.5% having no opinion of him. Hoekstra’s name identification is largely unchanged from the pre convention survey when he was 24.3% favorable. But Hoekstra’s unfavorable has increased from 25.5% to 32.8% -- a 7% unfavorable increase.
- In the pre convention survey, Stabenow and Hoekstra were statistically tied among men at 44.7%(Hoekstra)/ 43.4% (Stabenow). In the post convention survey, Stabenow has taken a narrow 4 point lead over Hoekstra among men at 44.0%-39.7%.
- Both candidates continue to do well with their party faithful with Stabenow winning 86.4% of strong Democrats and Hoekstra winning 81.0% of strong Republicans. But Stabenow wins 79.5% of leaning Democrats as compared to Hoekstra winning only 63.2% of leaning Republicans. Stabenow leads among true Independents by a margin of 33.8%-30.6%.