Tight race in Florida, New Hampshire

Romney leads Obama, within margin of error

Author: By Gregory Wallace CNN
Published On: Oct 12 2012 03:48:33 PM EDT   Updated On: Oct 14 2012 01:31:45 AM EDT
Obama  Romney alter on jobs
(CNN) -

New polls in two presidential battleground states -- Florida and New Hampshire -- show the race for the White House is locked up there.

Republican nominee Mitt Romney's slight advantage over President Barack Obama among likely voters is within the sampling error of the American Research Group polls in both states.

In Florida, Romney is at 49% and Obama stands at 46%, the poll, released Friday, shows. Romney's advantage in New Hampshire is four points, 50% to 46%.

Both surveys are within the polls' sampling errors of plus or minus four points. The surveys were conducted from early this week through Thursday -- entirely after the first presidential debate last week. Thursday night was the vice presidential debate.

A separate poll of likely Florida voters conducted in the same time frame found a larger advantage for Romney which is right on the edge of the sampling error: 51% for Romney and 44% for Obama in the Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll released Friday morning.

But a poll conducted Sunday through Tuesday, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll, found Obama at 48% and Romney at 47% -- all tied up.

The latest CNN Poll of Polls, comprised of those three samples, finds Romney at 49% and Obama at 46%. The Poll of Polls is an average so has no calculable sampling error.

In the Granite State, the latest ARG poll shows the race leaning in Romney's favor, while their last survey -- conducted before last week's presidential debate -- showed the race leaning towards Obama, although both margins were within the sampling error. Friday's sample showed Romney at 50% and Obama at 46%, while the September 25-27 poll had Romney at 45% and Obama at 50%.

A WMUR Granite State poll released Tuesday showed Obama's one-time 15 point lead over Romney had shrunk to a six point advantage within the sampling error. That survey was conducted partially before and partially after the presidential debate.

Florida, with 29 electoral votes, is the largest prize of the nine states currently rated as "toss ups" on the CNN Electoral Map. New Hampshire has four electoral votes. Obama won both in 2008.

The ARG poll in Florida included 600 likely voters contacted by telephone between October 8 and 11. The ARG poll in New Hampshire also included 600 likely voters contacted by telephone, and was conducted between October 9 and 11.