Final thoughts: To franchise, or not to franchise, Ndamukong Suh

DETROIT – When the Detroit Lions fell just short of a playoff victory in Dallas last month, an 11-5 season came to an end and gave way to another, much rockier journey. On Monday afternoon, that journey will cross perhaps its most significant milestone.

Monday marks the NFL deadline for teams to place the franchise tag on pending free agent players. By 4 p.m., the Lions have to make a decision: To franchise, or not to franchise, star defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh.

Suh's contract discussion began well before the 2014 season and has persevered through an otherwise quiet offseason.

First, the Lions were confident they would keep Suh in Detroit. Then, just weeks into the season, rumors surfaced that the Lions' former No. 2 overall pick wanted to leave the team and play in a major market like New York.

Earlier this month, the Lions flipped the script again.

"He wants to have success in the NFL, obviously, but he wants to do that with us," team president Tom Lewand told Local 4. "I think there's a very, very good chance that we can get something done with him in the next few weeks."

The next few weeks passed without any sign that the two sides could "get something done."

Whatever remaining power Detroit holds expires on Monday. If the Lions want their best player back, they simply have to use their trump card and franchise Suh.

For those who still haven't picked a side of the argument, time is running low. But the dramatic pros and cons to using the franchise tag are what make this such a difficult, compelling decision. Here's a look at the factors facing Lions officials this weekend.

Camp A: Franchise Suh

Members of Camp A will argue that the Lions, who boasted the No. 2 scoring defense in the NFL last season, have to do whatever it takes to retain the anchor of that unit. As the Stallworth of the defensive line, Suh clogs up running lanes, makes tackles in the backfield and improves the secondary by forcing pressured passes.

Franchising Suh wouldn't just bring back the player who spent the last five years in Detroit. More specifically, the Lions would return the Suh that put up arguably the best numbers of his career in 2014.

Suh was undoubtedly motivated by playing in a contract year last season, putting up his best raw numbers since he was a rookie. His 8.5 sacks, 53 tackles and 13 stuffs while facing nearly constant double teams paved the way for the Lions to hold opponents to 17.6 points per game.

If Detroit slaps the franchise tag on Suh, he'll be right back where he started last offseason. The Lions would get another year of Suh playing ahead of free agency, a circumstance that brought out his best in 2014. And on top of that, they'll get a 28-year-old Suh in the heart of his prime, without paying big money for a 34-year-old Suh down the line.

That's right, in some ways, the franchise tag is a better option than actually signing Suh. While the Lions would love to keep Suh in Detroit for the next few years, a six-year deal would force them to dish out more guaranteed money in return for his less-effective years.

To put the numbers in perspective, Suh is expected to sign a deal similar to or even larger than the one Houston gave to defensive end J.J. Watt. Watt, one of the best all-around players in the league, received $100 million over six years, including $51.8 million guaranteed. When the deal expires after the 2021 season, Watt will be 32 years old.

If Suh signs a six-year deal this offseason, he'll make around $100 million to play until he's 34. Halfway through that contract, Suh would enter the 2018 season as a 31-year-old with eight years of NFL wear and tear on his body.

Suh is one of the league's best players and will likely still be effective on the defensive line in three years. But with the franchise tag, the Lions will enjoy perhaps his best remaining year without committing to any long-term risks.

Camp B: Let Suh walk

Camp B is filled with fans who are, in general, less emotionally tied to the obvious elite ability of Suh and more concerned with the immediate financial ramifications of using the largest franchise tag in NFL history.

Suh made a total of $22,412,500 last season and would make 120 percent of that money if the Lions used the franchise tag for 2015. That total comes out to $26,895,500, not including the $9,737,500 in dead money that the Lions will pay whether or not Suh returns to Detroit.

The implications of paying Suh nearly $27 million are obvious. With Calvin Johnson making over $20.5 million and Matt Stafford over $17.7 million, the Lions would be locking up $74,911,750 of their salary cap in three players, leaving around $65 million of the projected 2015 cap of $140 million to fill out the rest of the roster.

Detroit is only about $16 million under the projected salary cap, meaning it would need to free up at least $10 million to fit Suh's franchise tag on the roster. Earlier this week, the Lions cleared up $1.7 million by cutting running back Reggie Bush. If Suh gets a franchise tag, Stephen Tulloch might be the next to go, as the Lions' defense didn't miss a beat after his injury. The move would save Detroit $3.2 million.

Last season the Lions added Golden Tate, George Johnson and James Ihedigbo via free agency and all three players made major contributions to an 11-5 record.

Detroit won't make much of a free agent splash if it uses the franchise tag on Suh, putting heightened importance on the draft. Running back, offensive line, cornerback and even defensive tackle are significant needs for the Lions this offseason, with or without Suh.

What should the Lions do?

The best-case scenario for the Lions would be to reach a deal with Suh, improve the offensive line and rushing attack in the draft and move forward with a roster better than the one that went 11-5 last season.

Realistically, Monday's deadline will play a major role in whether or not Suh ever dons a Lions uniform again. If the Lions want a long-term deal, the franchise tag would extend their chance to negotiate for another (agonizing) year. Doing so would make the draft the only means of improvement, besides player development, before next season.

Fortunately for the Lions, the franchise tag decision is one that largely that holds short-term implications. The $37 million owed to Suh next season would be gone in 2016 (barring another contract) and the Lions would move on and try to fill the hole in the defensive line.

Suh is the best player on the team, but he doesn't play a position that traditionally impacts the game enough to make more money than the starting quarterback.

By Monday afternoon, the Lions will have weighed all these factors and make a final decision on Suh. The choice will dictate the rest of Detroit's offseason and plot the course for the 2015 season.

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