DETROIT – When the Detroit Lions fell behind 14-0 in the second quarter of their Week 15 win over the Minnesota Vikings, fans who knew the stakes were shocked into a silence that hadn't encased Ford Field since a Week 5 loss to the Bills. By the end of the game, most of the ugly stats hadn't changed. Detroit was outgained 360-233 in yards, allowed the Vikings to control the ball for nearly 35 minutes and picked up just 11 first downs.
When the clock hit triple zeroes in the fourth quarter, the Lions had scored only one touchdown all afternoon, but a 68-yard field goal attempt fell short for the Vikings and the home team escaped with a 16-14 win.
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How did the Lions pull it out? The simple answer is that they committed no turnovers, but forced two. Minnesota also went 0-3 on field goal attempts, though one was blocked and one would have been the longest in NFL history. Detroit's defense allowed two touchdowns on its first four drives, but shut down the Vikings in their last six tries to get the job done.
The Lions almost lost to the 6-8 Vikings, but instead improved to 10-4, good enough for first place in the NFC North with two weeks left.
Three other games around the NFL affected the Lions' playoff hopes Sunday. First, the division-leading Packers fell to the Bills and surrendered the top spot to Detroit. Then, Seattle shut down San Francisco, eliminating the 49ers from playoff contention. Finally, on Sunday Night Football, Dallas pulled off a stunning upset of Philadelphia to drop the Eagles temporarily out of the playoff picture.
When all the dust settled, the Lions found themselves sitting in the No. 2 seed of the NFC. This means Detroit would be in the playoffs if these standings hold. It also means the Lions would enjoy a first-round bye to await the winner of Dallas and Green Bay. But most importantly, it means the Lions would host a playoff game in Ford Field.
Unfortunately for the Lions, the season didn't end this weekend.
Now, with just two games to play, the playoff picture is growing ever-clearer for the NFC North leaders. Detroit is just one win away from clinching a playoff spot and controls its own destiny in the division.
Take a look at the NFC playoff picture as a whole. Other than the NFC South Division, which will send a team without a winning record to the playoffs as the No. 4 seed, there are five teams battling for four remaining spots in the postseason (after Arizona clinched a spot Sunday).
Along with Detroit, Dallas (10-4), Seattle (10-4), Green Bay (10-4) and Philadelphia (9-5) also remain in the hunt to play football in January. The goal for these squads is clear: Don't be the only team left at home this offseason.
The only way the Lions become the team that misses out on a postseason berth is with losses in each of their final two games, in Chicago and Green Bay. If they do lose those games, the Lions will only make the playoffs if the Eagles lose either of their final two games, or if the Cowboys lose both of their final two games.
On the other hand, if the Lions beat the Bears but lose to the Packers, they'll be all but locked into the No. 6 seed. They only way the Lions can grab the No. 5 seed, and the right to play the NFC South champion in the first round, is if the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks lose their final two games. As the No. 6 seed, the Lions would most likely travel to Dallas or Philadelphia in the first round.
If Detroit somehow loses to Chicago, but then wins in Green Bay, it would likely land the No. 3 seed and host the Packers in the first round. The Lions could also earn the No. 2 seed in this scenario if the Cowboys lose one of their final two games.
Are you keeping up? Basically the Lions could conceivably land at the No. 2, No. 3, No. 5 or No. 6 seeds.
What's the Lions' highest ceiling?
Wins in each of their last two games would guarantee Detroit an NFC North crown and first-round bye. A 12-4 record would be the best for the Lions since they reached that same mark in 1991. This scenario would almost certainly drop the Lions into the No. 2 seed in the NFC, though they could jump to No. 1 if the Seahawks and Cardinals both finish 11-5.
How realistic is the 12-4 dream for Detroit? Well, the Lions should certainly beat a battered Bears team, even in Soldier Field. But the Packers offer a much more imposing challenge.
One rallying point for the Lions is that the Packers are certainly beatable. Another loss to a stout defensive team this weekend exposed the Green Bay offense as at least slightly overrated.
On the surface, the Packers are one of the top offensive teams in the entire country, averaging 31.1 points per game, good for second in the NFL behind New England. But breaking down the Green Bay schedule shows that shutting down Aaron Rodgers is more doable than the numbers suggest.
Over the course of this season, the Packers have gone up against four defenses ranked in the top third of the NFL, three ranked in the middle third and seven ranked in the bottom third.
Against those bottom-third teams, the Packers average an impressive 40.1 points per game, including outbursts of more than 50 points against the Bears and Eagles. In those seven games, Rodgers has looked like a no-doubt MVP candidate, completing 68.7 percent of his passes for an average of 329.1 yards and a total of 23 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
In games against the middle-tier defenses, the Packers' offense takes a significant dip, though that should be expected against more talented competition. The Packers average a solid 31 points per game against those teams, while Rodgers completes 62.5 percent of his passes for an average of just 209.7 yards and a total of eight scores and no picks.
Games against NFL defenses in the top third of the league really give the Packers trouble. In those games, Green Bay averages just 15.5 points per game, less than half of their overall season average. To put that number in perspective, only the Raiders and Jaguars average less than 15.5 points per game this season. When his team faces a strong defensive unit, Rodgers is much less effective, completing just 57.1 percent of his passes for an average of 226 yards. He's thrown four touchdowns and three picks in those four games.
What can you take away from these statistics? Well, when the Lions travel to Lambeau Field in Week 17, the Packers will face their fifth top-tier defense of the season. The numbers from the first 15 weeks of the season suggest that Rodgers & Co. could struggle to score points in that matchup.
Detroit's two-point home win against the Vikings was certainly ugly, but it kept the postseason and division title hopes alive. Now, with just two games left on the schedule, the Lions have a chance to really make some noise in the NFC.
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