Game against Penn State will make or break Michigan football's season

Wolverines hope for biggest win of Jim Harbaugh era

Jim Harbaugh the head coach of the Michigan Wolverines watches the action during the game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium on October 14, 2017 in Bloomington, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

ANN ARBOR, Mich. – College sports are fueled by overreactions.

Teams shoot up in the rankings based on early-season wins. Players are considered Heisman Trophy contenders before the end of September. Coaches get fired over a single bad season.

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But is it an overreaction to say Michigan football's season hangs in the balance when it travels to Penn State this weekend?

Before you can answer, think about what would qualify as a successful season for the Wolverines in Jim Harbaugh's third season. Would it be good enough to top last year's 10-3 record? Does Michigan need to win a Big Ten title? Or make the College Football Playoff?

If Michigan loses Saturday, all those goals can be thrown out the window.

With a loss

Michigan has already used its one mulligan for the season, losing at home to Michigan State in a game it was favored to win by double digits. After the loss, Michigan players said they have to win out to achieve their goals, and they were right.

A loss at Penn State would completely eliminate Michigan from the Big Ten East Division race. Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State are all unbeaten in conference play, so a second loss would create an impossible uphill battle for the Wolverines.

In addition to the conference implications, Michigan would no longer be relevant on a national level. No team has ever gotten into the College Football Playoff with two losses, and Michigan certainly wouldn't be in a position to change that without a conference championship.

National relevance is extremely important in today's age of college football. Ranked teams play more primetime games, which means more exposure. Harbaugh knows the importance of exposure, as he's proven throughout his time at Michigan. As a result, his last two recruiting classes ranked among the best in the nation.

Michigan also benefits from having a recruiting edge over Penn State, as Harbaugh has stolen multiple key recruits from James Franklin. Michigan's best cornerback, Lavert Hill, and star kicker, Quinn Nordin, were both committed to Penn State before flipping to Harbaugh.

If Michigan loses in Happy Valley, with "College GameDay" in attendance and the whole country watching, it gives Franklin ammunition in those recruiting battles.

Theoretically, if Michigan loses to Penn State and wins the rest of its games, it would have a respectable 10-2 season. But the Wolverines would still fall short of their goals.

With a win

As crushing as it would be for Michigan to take its second loss midway through October, it would be even more revitalizing to pull off an upset.

Right now, Michigan is being largely dismissed as a true contender. Even after a win at Indiana, Michigan fell two spots in the AP Poll. Teams with worse resumes, such as Washington, are ranked above Michigan because of underwhelming performances in wins.

A win over No. 2 Penn State would completely change the outlook on Michigan. Not only would the Wolverines boast one the best wins in the country this season, they would also make up lost ground in the Big Ten East Division.

Michigan has three extremely difficult games left on the schedule, but the one at Penn State looks like the toughest. With a win, Michigan would be 6-1, with Rutgers, Minnesota and Maryland coming up. A 9-1 start would be a distinct possibility.

Michigan would likely vault back into the top 10 with a win. As we saw last weekend, anything is possible in college football, so as Michigan rises, other teams would fall.

Harbaugh needs a signature win

Since Harbaugh arrived in Ann Arbor nearly three years ago, Michigan has a 25-7 record. That's a solid .781 winning percentage, but it's lacking in big wins.

In 2015, Michigan's biggest wins came over BYU, Northwestern and Florida. All three teams were ranked in the top 25 when Michigan pounded them by a combined score of 110-7. In the final rankings, Northwestern was No. 23 and Florida was No. 25. Solid wins? Yes. Great wins? Not really.

Michigan's resume was even better last season, when it smacked Penn State by 39 and beat then-No. 8 Wisconsin and Colorado. Penn State finished the season ranked No. 7, Wisconsin No. 9 and Colorado No. 17. Those are great wins, but Michigan was a home favorite against all three opponents, two of which weren't even ranked at the time.

It's not as if Michigan hasn't had plenty of chances to win big games under Harbaugh. No. 7 Michigan State and No. 8 Ohio State both came to the Big House in 2015, and both left with wins over Michigan. Perhaps the biggest game in Michigan football history took place in Columbus last season, and Michigan lost in two overtimes.

The Wolverines have been close, but too often they've come up empty.

If Michigan finds a way to win this weekend at Penn State, it would be the biggest victory of the Harbaugh era, at a time when the young team badly needs a boost.


About the Author:

Derick is the Lead Digital Editor for ClickOnDetroit and has been with Local 4 News since April 2013. Derick specializes in breaking news, crime and local sports.