8 reasons not to believe in Lions

Lions finished first half 6-2

DETROIT – The Lions kick off the second half of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon, hosting the Miami Dolphins at Ford Field.

Most Lions fans were thrilled about the first half, as the Lions went 6-2, including miracle wins in the last two games against New Orleans and Atlanta.

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Most NFL experts thought the Lions would finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs. Right now, the team is way ahead of schedule.

Before the season, most fans penciled in an automatic win over the Dolphins. But that's no longer the case. Miami is 5-3 with an impressive victory over the Patriots to open the season. They also beat the Bears and lost to Green Bay in the closing seconds behind an incredible drive by Packers' QB Aaron Rodgers.

Most Lions fans are giddy and have their sights set on not only a playoff spot after missing the postseason the last two seasons, but a home playoff game.

Good luck.

Here are eight reasons why you should not believe in the Lions in the second half.

1. History - We've seen this movie before: Lions start hot and fade

In case you forgot, this type of collapse happened last season. The Lions were 6-3 and finished 7-9. The embarrassing collapse included home losses to Tampa Bay, Baltimore and the Giants.

In 2007, under coach Rod Marinelli, Detroit started 6-2 and lost seven of its last eight games.

2. They haven't beaten anyone (granted, you can only play the teams on your schedule)

But Lions have only beaten one team with a record over .500: the Packers. Their other five wins come from teams with a combined 14-28 mark.

3. Their luck will run out

The Lions should be 4-4. They were gift-wrapped back-to-back wins to close out the first half.

First, the Saints gave up two TDs in the final four minutes. The game-winner was set up by a terrible interception thrown by Drew Brees in his own end on what should have been a running play.

The Lions were down 21-0 before the terrible Falcons coughed up the lead, including a dumb penalty that set the Lions up for the game-winning field goal.

4. Matt Prater isn't Matt Prater

The Lions kicking woes aren't cured with the signing of Prater, the former All-Pro from Denver. He has made five of seven kicks (71 percentage), his lowest rate of success since his first full season in 2008. Last year, Prater was 25 for 26.

5. The defense

Yes, the Lions' defense is ranked No. 1 in the NFL right now, allowing just 290.4 yards per game. Granted, they have played well at times. But you still have to wonder if it's the opponents they've faced thus far that have propelled them to the top.

Plus, Nick Fairley could be lost for the season with an injury. If so, it's a big blow to the defense moving forward.

6. The schedule

The Lions had the third-easiest schedule in the league in the first half.

Yes, you're supposed to beat the weak teams. No one will rip the Lions for eating cupcakes alive. You never discount winning.

The problem, as history has shown us, is that in the second half, with a harder schedule (6th toughest this year), the season often blows up in Detroit's face.

With games against Miami, in Arizona and in New England to start the second half, trouble is ahead. Those three teams are a combined 19-6, including 13-2 in their last five games.

Easily, the Lions could be 6-5 come Thanksgiving. That turkey won't taste as good if they lose the next three in a row.

7. Point blank, Stafford has played bad this season.

The record says one thing, but his stats say another.

And yes, the Lions have had major injuries to the offense with Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush missing time in the first half.

Still, Stafford has been off, especially with his accuracy. In NFL QB ratings, he ranks No. 22 behind Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was just was replaced in Houston.

Stafford has just 11 touchdowns compared to seven interceptions. Rodgers has the best QB rating at 113.6. Stafford's mark is 85.6, just ahead of Washington's Kirk Cousins, who was benched. Not a pretty picture.

8. The last two games

The season will probably come down to those final two games on the road in Chicago and Green Bay in December.

You can see it. The Lions will lose those two games and finish 8-8, not 10-6, and miss the playoffs yet again.