Forecast: Cold front on the way to metro Detroit

You'll notice the change!

DETROIT – As I write this, a strong cold front is steadily marching southward across the state.

Ahead of the front we're in the nice, balmy airmass that we've enjoyed for so many days. Behind the front are showers, and sharply colder temperatures. I was watching the weather observations up north this afternoon, and after the front passed through Gaylord, the temperature dropped from 69° to 53° in less than four hours, and Alpena dropped from 76° to 61°. This front means business!

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Tonight, showers will develop from north to south, with temps falling into the 50s, although those of you north of M-59 may squeak into the upper 40s. Wind becoming northwest at 4 to 8 mph after the front passes by.

Tuesday is going to be a mostly cloudy day, with a few random sprinkles or very light showers possible…especially up in the Thumb. Highs generally in the 50s to near 60°. Northwest wind at 5 to 10 mph.

Becoming partly cloudy Tuesday night, with lows between 45° and 50°.

Mostly sunny on Wednesday, with highs rebounding back into the upper 60s.

Mostly clear Wednesday night, with lows in the low 50s.

Partly cloudy on Thursday, with highs in the mid 70s.

Showers develop later Thursday night, with lows in the upper 50s.

Rain likely on Friday, with highs in the mid 60s.

Showers gradually diminish Friday night, with lows in the mid 40s.

The upcoming weekend is somewhat uncertain, as the long range computer models don't agree. Three of the four (the GFS, UKMET and GEM) keep us dry. However, the fourth model is the normally reliable ECMWF, and it develops a deep upper level low pressure right over us, which would give us the chance for some showers.

Right now, it's just too early to try and choose. Even though it's three models against one, I just can't write off the ECMWF yet. Give me a day or two, and I'll nail this down for you.

What the models DO agree upon is much cooler temperatures moving in, with highs probably only in the 50s this weekend, and it will probably be breezy, too.