Before getting into the forecast, I want to briefly touch on something about this afternoon’s storms and the warnings.
One of Doppler radar’s greatest aspects is the ability to see the wind inside of a storm, and this afternoon we saw a lot of rotating thunderstorms. Tornado warnings were issued for all of them, but we “only” had three very weak, brief touchdowns with no damage reported (as of the time I wrote this article).
Given the choice, I think most people would rather be warned about a potential tornado BEFORE it strikes, than after it’s too late to take cover. Chuck Gaidica, Ben Bailey and I were all here studying the radar this afternoon, and there was no question that a lot of storms showed the capability of producing a tornado. The fact that very little damage occurred today is not an indication that the radar didn’t do its job. Not every storm that shows signs of dropping a twister will do so -- but it’s our responsibility to warn you about these storms, because some of them do generate devastating tornadoes, and I suspect that you’d want to hear about it ahead of time.
Alright, onto the forecast:
Evening storms will end early, and there’s only a small chance for any additional storms overnight. It will be muggy, with lows in the low 60s.
Right now it appears that we'll remain mostly dry Tuesday until thunderstorms develop ahead of a cold front Tuesday afternoon into early evening. There are some factors that favor another round of severe storms, and other factors that diminish the threat. I think the most important factor is going to be sunshine. Some computer models keep us mostly cloudy, while other models break us out into some pretty solid sunshine. More sun = higher temps = higher instability = stronger storms.
We'll see how things pan out, but remember to have your weather radio set and equipped with a fresh battery, and also to follow me on Twitter for updates (@PaulGrossLocal4). Highs Tuesday in the upper 70s (it'll be humid, too), with a southwest wind at 10 to 20 mph.
Storms end Tuesday evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows near 50.
Wednesday starts an extended stretch of cool, rainy weather. The day itself should start dry, then rain will move back in during the afternoon. Highs in the low 60s. Rain likely Wednesday night. Lows in the mid 40s.
Rain likely Thursday, with highs in the mid 50s. Rain should taper off after midnight Thursday night, with lows in the low 40s.
A chance of mostly afternoon showers on Friday. Highs in the mid 50s. Mostly cloudy Friday night, with lows in the upper 30s.
Partly cloudy Saturday with some scattered afternoon showers. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Partly cloudy Saturday night, with lows in the upper 30s.
Partly cloudy on Sunday, with highs in the low 50s.
Mostly sunny on Monday, with highs in the mid 60s.