DETROIT – Alright…let's get right to the forecast, and I'll explain the Saturday snow below.
Tonight will feature mostly clear skies, but breezy conditions won't let our temperatures fall to their potential…I think we'll bottom out around 30° (-1° Celsius for our Canadian neighbors). Southwest wind at 10 to 15 mph.
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Mostly sunny on Friday, with a bit of cloud cover approaching during the late afternoon hours. Highs in the mid 40s (7° Celsius), with a west-southwest wind at 15 to 20 mph. Friday's sunrise is at 7:30 AM, and Friday's sunset is at 5:08 PM.
Increasing clouds Friday night, with a dusting of light snow possible late at night. Lows near 30 (-1° Celsius).
There's still some difficulty in the snow forecast, and I can show you why below. The first computer model, the ECMWF, shows the pattern for 7:00 PM Saturday evening. The second model, the GFS, is for the exact same time. Notice how the innermost cirlce near us (the low pressure area) is farther south on the ECMWF than on the GFS model. There are tremendous implications to this difference. If the low comes farther north, as the GFS indicates, then some warmer air will also come north, and so will some rain…with the heavier snow band shifting farther north. If the ECMWF verifies, then the warmer air stays farther south, and the heavier snow band also shifts farther south. As you can see, the differences aren't all that great, but the results are dramatically different. And by the way, the NAM model (not shown) is similar to the ECMWF, while the RPM model (not shown) is similar to the GFS. Oy vay!
So, based upon my analysis of these models (and others), as well as technical discussions about the models' handling of this system, here's how I see our Saturday shaking out: We could start the day with a dusting of snow, but I think there will then be a break, with precipitation returning by mid to late afternoon.
Rain or rain and snow may occur near and south of a line roughly from St. Clair Shores to Redford to Adrian. North of there, it should be mostly just snow developing – unless the low comes even farther north. Here's what the GFS model (which I'm leaning toward) suggests for snow totals across the lower peninsula. Something important to keep in mind is that temperatures Saturday will reach a high around 40° (5° Celsius). So snow may initially melt before starting to accumulate, and the higher water content of the snow (i.e., "wet" snow") will also make it heavier…it'll compact more. Thus, the amounts you see here on the forecast graphic below will likely end up lower – perhaps an inch or two lower.
Those of you heading up north for hunting will be greeted with some nice tracking snow. Remember that we're still two days out…and tomorrow's computer models should come into even better agreement on this storm. My forecast may change then, but this is how I see it now.
IMPORTANT: temperatures will eventually fall below freezing Saturday evening, so watch out for ice to potentially develop as wet surfaces freeze. Be careful if you'll be out late.
Sunday should be partly cloudy to mostly sunny, with highs only in the mid 30s (2° Celsius).
We then get back to a nice stretch of dry, quiet weather next Monday through Thursday, with temperatures gradually warming through Thanksgiving. Travel around the Great Lakes looks problem-free through Thursday, with our next rain chance coming on Friday. My first thoughts about the Thanksgiving Parade weather is for dry conditions with temperatures rising into the 40s (4-6° Celsius)!