DETROIT – Before getting to our local forecast, first a quick update about Hurricane Patricia, which is now (when I am writing this at 3:30 PM) a catastrophic Category 5 storm with sustained (meaning continuous) 200 mph wind near its center.
Not only does that make it the strongest western hemisphere on record, but its wind intensification of 110 mph in 24 hours is also a western hemisphere record. The storm is located 100-125 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and is moving north. It will hit the Mexican coast tonight and cause tremendous destruction near its center. Also remember that the intense rainfall combined with Mexico's very mountainous terrain will cause significant flash flooding and mudslide dangers -- this factor alone will likely cause a number of fatalities.
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Did global warming cause this storm?
I also want to answer a question that I always get when a storm of this magnitude develops: did global warming cause this storm? The answer is no. Global warming did not cause this storm. A tropical cyclone could have developed no matter what. In fact, climate scientists are gravitating toward a theory that we'll actually see fewer overall hurricanes as a result of our warming climate. HOWEVER, those same scientists also say that hurricanes that do develop in favorable conditions in the warming climate will be stronger due to the rapidly warming ocean surface temperatures. The sheer number of significant hurricanes and typhoons we've seen in recent years sure lends credence to the expectation of fewer but stronger hurricanes in our future.
Metro Detroit weekend forecast
By comparison, our local forecast is a piece of cake. Clouds will increase this evening, with a band of rain arriving after midnight (your evening plans are dry). Lows near 50° (10° Celsius for our Canadian neighbors), but that low will probably occur shortly after midnight, and I think temperatures will start rising after that. Southeast wind at 5 to 10 mph.
Our Saturday will start with much needed rain, then I think we'll get a midday lull where there's either no rain, or just a few widely scattered showers. During this lull, temperatures should rise into the mid to upper 60s (20° Celsius). However, a cold front will cross the area by mid to late afternoon with a line of showers and even a few possible thunderstorms so, if you have outdoor plans, make sure to check the awesome radar on our free Local4Casters app to stay ahead of the weather. Also, I'll have a comprehensive update to start your day on Local 4 News Today beginning at 6:00 AM -- so join me then. Saturday will also become windy, with south to southwest wind at 15 to 25 mph developing.
Saturday's sunrise is at 7:56 AM, and Saturday's sunset is at 6:38 PM.
Becoming partly cloudy Saturday night, with lows in the mid 40s (7° Celsius).
Mostly sunny on Sunday -- the back half of our weekend looks like a splendid fall day -- with highs in the mid to upper 50s (14° Celsius). No weather issues for Lions tailgaters. Go Lions!
Mostly clear Sunday night, with lows in the mid to upper 30s (3° Celsius) outside of the Detroit Urban Heat Island, and near 40° (5° Celsius) in the heat island.
Partly cloudy on Monday, with highs mid to upper 50s (14° Celsius).
Partly cloudy Monday night, with lows generally near 40° (5° Celsius).
Partly cloudy on Tuesday, with highs in the low 60s (16° Celsius).
Rain develops Tuesday night, with lows in the low 50s (11° Celsius).
Rain and thunderstorms are likely on Wednesday, with highs near 60° (15° Celsius). It will also become breezy on Wednesday.
Rain diminishes Wednesday night, and winds increase. Lows near 40° (5° Celsius).
Mostly cloudy, very windy and colder on Thursday, with scattered light rain and/or snow showers. Highs briefly near 50° (10° Celsius), but most of the day will be in the 40s…and the wind will make it feel even colder.
Still breezy Thursday night, but becoming mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s (2° Celsius).
Mostly sunny on Friday, with highs in the low to mid 50s (11° Celsius).
There's still no change to my Halloween outlook. Saturday looks to be a mostly sunny day, with dry conditions for the Trick or Treaters! Even the wind doesn't look like anything to worry about. Temperatures will probably be falling into 40s by the time the kids head out to gather the pounds of candy they'll feast on for the next few weeks.