Record cold Saturday, snow Sunday in SE Michigan

DETROIT – Conditions Friday night (clear skies, dry air, light wind, and deep snowpack) will be ideal once again for -- all together now -- Radiational Cooling.

Yes, I've talked about this so often this winter that you probably know it pretty well by now. Specifically, temperatures in our Urban Heat Island should slip a couple of degrees below zero, while the suburbs drop to around -6°, and the typically coldest spots probably get close to -10°.

Mostly sunny on Saturday -- a spectacular winter day to run errands, play in the snow, wash your car if you have Saturday night plans, etc. Highs near or even slightly above 20°. Light southwest wind.

Increasing clouds Saturday night, with lows around 10° being set Saturday evening, and temperatures then rising into the mid teens by Sunday morning.

Snow develops by mid-morning Sunday, and it'll continue the rest of the day (I'll discuss totals in the Sunday night forecast). Highs in the upper 20s means the kids can once again go out and enjoy the snow!

Snow tapers off late Sunday night. There will be a gradient of diminishing snow totals from south to north. While I still see some inconsistencies in the computer models (this is a weak, ill-defined weather system -- the models typically have trouble with these), I am starting to get a feel for how this may play out. Right now, I see Monroe and Lenawee Counties probably averaging around 4 inches, with totals approaching 3 inches in Wayne and Washtenaw Counties, 2 inches in Macomb, Oakland and Livingston Counties, 1 to 2 inches between M-59 and I-69, and an inch or less north of I-69. Keep in mind that any north or southward shift in the weather pattern will shift these totals north or south.

I'll keep an eye on things over the weekend -- follow me on Twitter if you want updates (@PaulGrossLocal4).

Becoming mostly sunny on Monday, with highs in the upper 20s -- another great-looking winter day.

Increasing clouds Monday night, with low in the mid teens.

Tuesday's storm is still exceptionally complicated, and I'll be working on a lot of thermodynamic thinking over the next few days as the computer models give us a better handle on its proximity to us. The way things look today (and this could change), we'd see some accumulating snow develop on Tuesday (perhaps an inch or two), followed by some of us changing to freezing rain, followed by some of us changing to plain rain as temperatures warm into the mid 30s. The magnitude of the warm air push (which is tempered a bit by the deep snowpack), will dictate how much snow and ice we get. One thing the models agree upon right now is that this storm will have copious amounts of moisture with it -- we could see a lot of rain (perhaps between a half-inch and one inch).

But it's not just the rain we have to consider: remember that we have nearly a foot of snow on the ground, and if we get a lot of rain PLUS a lot of snowmelt, then we need to be cognizant of some possible flooding. If you have storm drains on your street, something I suggest you do on Monday is make sure to shovel off any snow that's been plowed on top of those drains. If everybody with storm drains does this, then we'll all be better off Tuesday and beyond.

Any rain Tuesday night should change to snow showers by late Tuesday night. Lows around 30°.

Mostly cloudy and becoming very windy on Wednesday, with snow showers still possible. Temperatures should initially hold steady near 30°, then start falling during the afternoon.

Partly cloudy Wednesday night, with lows around 10°.

Partly cloudy on Thursday, with highs near 20°.

Partly cloudy Thursday night. Lows between 5° and 10°.

Partly cloudy on Friday as temperatures recover. Highs near 30°.

And just in case all of these weather changes has your head spinning, listen to what my good friend and long-time colleague Mike Nelson told me today. He's chief meteorologist at KMGH-TV in Denver (I gave him a call on my way to work to say hi and catch up with him). He said that the first two weeks of February in Denver had them on the way toward their warmest February on record. Now, the last two weeks in February have them pointing toward their snowiest February on record.

How about THAT?