DETROIT – Most of the overnight hours should be dry, with some showers possibly developing late at night. Lows near 40°, with light wind.
Thursday is going to be a day of changes, so let me explain:
A warm front will be draped across northern Ohio and Indiana when you and I wake up. As the front begins moving northward, showers and thunderstorms are possible. The computer models are all over the place with the placement and timing, but my gut feeling is that any showers and storms we get with the warm front will be in the morning. It'll be cool ahead of the front…temps only in the 40s…but once the front passes by, temperatures will immediately rocket into the 50s and 60s.
The models also disagree about Thursday afternoon, with some models keeping thunderstorms in the area into mid-afternoon, while other models project almost nothing in the area. My gut feeling is that we won't see much afternoon thunderstorm activity. High temps in the mid to upper 60s. It's also going to become windy behind that warm front, with southwest winds of 15 to 20 mph developing.
Thursday's sunrise is at 7:03 AM, and Thursday's sunset is at 8:08 PM.
Thursday night brings a cold front, with another chance of thunderstorms. Some models bring a line of storms across southeast Michigan, while other models give us almost nothing. This is one of those situations I'll have to watch carefully, as any storms that do develop have the potential to become severe, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. Wind will increase dramatically behind the cold front so, even if we don't get any storms, we likely will still get some strong late night wind gusts that may wake you up.
If you don't already, I strongly suggest following me on Twitter for weather updates: @PGLocal4. And this is also a good time to download our FREE Local4Casters app (other stations charge for theirs). Just search for WDIV in the app store, and it's right there. The app's radar loop is pretty awesome, and lets you zoom in or out. Finally, tomorrow would be a good day to make sure that your weather radio is plugged in and has fresh batteries.
And at this point I need to take a moment to explain something important. Some of you are weather enthusiasts and look for information from many places on the Internet. The Storm Prediction Center is one such place, and they are the ones that issue what are called Convective Outlooks, which highlight severe weather potential across the nation. The gang at SPC does a great job, but the Convective Outlook product has now become complicated. Prior to this year, they had three severe weather risk areas: slight risk, moderate risk, and high risk. Now, they have five: marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, high. They have put southeast Michigan in the enhanced risk area for Thursday night, but understand that this actually means that they are putting us in the upper end of the old slight risk area. And by the way, when the National Weather Service asked for public comment about this proposed change to the SPC product, I sent strongly worded feedback that making this change would be a terrible decision, and would significantly confuse the public -- and that has clearly happened.
I guess input didn't matter from a 32-year television meteorologist who truly understands the public, has chaired both an American Meteorological Society Board and Committee, and was one of the four group leaders on the National Weather Service's Severe Thunderstorm Criteria Team in 1998. I have already seen people now tweeting incorrect interpretations about severe weather risk areas, so please be careful about what you see AND SAY.
The Thursday night cold front will be followed by a second cold front on Friday. I don't think we'll see much (if any) rain with it, but it'll probably keep us mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s, and it'll be a windy day.
Becoming mostly clear Friday night, with lows in the mid 30s.
Mostly sunny on Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 50s.
Mostly clear Saturday night, with lows in the mid 30s.
Mostly sunny and warmer on Sunday, with highs near 60°.
Becoming partly cloudy Sunday night, with lows in the mid 40s.
A weak cold front crosses the area late Sunday night, but most models bring it through dry. We could see some morning clouds Monday, but skies should become mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 60s.
Increasing clouds Monday night, with lows in the mid 40s.
We'll see some showers and possible a few thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid 60s on Tuesday, and in the mid to upper 60s on Wednesday.