Weather: Our taste of fall is nearly over

Get ready for an extended stretch of summer!

DETROIT – It certainly has been a cool week -- no Dog Days here!

Three straight days with highs in the 60s sure isn't what we've come to expect the last week of August and, in case you're wondering, I've already checked: We did not set any records for lowest high temperatures this week (those records are in the low 60s). So now it's onward and upward, as the old saying goes, and don't worry -- those Dog Days will come roaring back!

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Friday night forecast:

Tonight features varying amounts and types of clouds, so I'm just going to punt and call it partly cloudy. Lows will be much milder than on recent nights (my thermometer at home hit 47° this morning), and I expect us to have a low tonight in the low 60s (16° Celsius for you Canadians). Light and variable wind.

Saturday forecast:

Mostly cloudy on Saturday (we'll get a bit of sun), with a widely scattered shower and the slight chance for a thunderstorm by late afternoon. I think most of the day will be dry, and allow us to enjoy the great outdoors. Highs in the upper 70s (26° Celsius). Southeast wind at 4 to 8 mph. Conditions look GREAT for the Alzheimer's Walk early Saturday afternoon here in downtown Detroit!

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are more likely Saturday night, with lows in the mid 60s.

Sunday forecast:

Sunday is a little tricky due to the very weak nature of the weather system coming through Saturday night but, based upon this afternoon's new computer models, I think we at least have the chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms during the morning (not everybody gets one), with a greater likelihood that most of us will see a dry afternoon. Hopefully, some sunshine will build in during the afternoon. Highs again in the upper 70s.

Partly cloudy Sunday night, with lows in the mid 60s.

Partly cloudy and warmer on Monday, with highs in the low 80s.

We then start an extended stretch of warm, more humid weather that should last us right through Arts, Beats and Eats next weekend! In general, expect partly cloudy skies from Tuesday through Labor Day, with highs generally in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s. As you know, when it gets warmer and more humid, there are thunderstorm chances, so let me explain this: we do not have any storm systems or fronts crossing our area next week, so I do not expect any waves of storms.

However, on a couple of days, a few widely scattered thunderstorms could randomly pop up during the late afternoon period. When these storms occur and how many pop up is dependent upon a number of factors: how unstable the low-level and mid-level parts of the atmosphere are, as well as if any small-scale triggers are around (such as lake breezes, or weak upper level disturbances). All of us will be warm and mostly dry next week, but I suggest keeping an eye on the radar on our FREE Local4Casters app if you have late afternoon outdoor plans -- just in case.

Hurricane Erika

This is a very tricky storm to predict due to very weak steering currents. The latest indications are that Erika will impact south Florida later in the day on Sunday, and then slowly move northward up the Florida peninsula Monday through Wednesday. The exact track is not certain. Some models bring it straight up the center of the state, which is bad news in that the entire state would be impacted, but also is good news in that it would probably remain a tropical storm since most of it would be over land (plus, some parts of Florida have been in drought and can use the rain).

However, some models bring Erika farther west -- partially over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters as it moves north up the west coast of Florida -- and this could permit strengthening to hurricane status. Likewise, some models bring it up the east coast of Florida, where it could strengthen as it feeds off the warm Gulf Stream waters, and eventually impact the Carolinas. The bottom line here is that if you have plans to head to Florida or the east coast this weekend, pay very close attention to the local news down there and be sure to heed all watches and warnings. Again, there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty in both the track and strength of this storm -- much more uncertainty than usual.

Hurricane Katrina anniversary

And while we're on the subject of hurricanes, tomorrow (Saturday) is the ten year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina devastating New Orleans. Many of you have memories of that event through the extensive news coverage afterwards, but I have a very different memory, and it's a somewhat disturbing one. On the Monday that Katrina hit, I saw two different people doing weather on national broadcasts comment that, since Katrina's eye was going to pass east of New Orleans, the city would be "spared the worst" (one of the weather people actually used that language). I was shocked, and angered when I heard that, as I had learned at an American Meteorological Society conference about Lake Pontchartrain and the levee system down there. I knew that very strong north wind on the west side of that storm could send a large amount of water into New Orleans, which is basically like a punchbowl -- the city is below sea level).

Telling the nation that New Orleans would be "spared the worst" was not only wrong, but was an irresponsible choice of language, as some people down there likely cancelled plans to seek sturdier shelter inland. I immediately went into our newsroom and asked (politely, but very directly) if they would grant Chuck Gaidica a chunk of time to explain this in our 5 p.m. newscast and, fortunately, they agreed (imagine Lake St. Clair pouring into downtown Detroit, I told the producers).

As you may recall, we all woke up Tuesday morning to reports of water rising rapidly in the city, and we all know what transpired after that. The reason I tell this story is that I'm sometimes teased about being a pretty geeky scientist. Well, there's a reason for that. Knowing my science allows me to provide you with information you need. It has to be accurate, and it has to matter to you.

Sometimes I'm monitoring Doppler radar and telling you about a storm that may become severe or is showing rotation before a warning is issued. Sometimes, it's the opposite: I'm toning down the rhetoric on a weather situation when others are hyping it. I'm a down-to-the core scientist, and I consider my job to be one of public safety. I wasn't blessed with good looks, and I'm about as funny as a plate of Jello, but please trust me and take action when I tell you to heed a watch or warning. I repeat my promise to always give it to you straight.