Winter is seriously coming! Will it be a snowy or dry season in Michigan? Will the polar vortex return?
Morning Musings 🤔
We're just under two months from the start of winter, but I'm sure that won't stop the cold from entering before Thanksgiving.
I've lived in Michigan for my entire life. Every October, I tell myself this will be the winter that doesn't upset me. "It probably won't snow that much," I tell myself. "Maybe it'll be 45 degrees in January," I predict with zero evidence.
I've learned to embrace the cold months more and more, though. There's certainly something special about a Sunday morning in December with a bit of snow on the lawn, a warm mug in my hand and nothing in particular to do.
But I'd still take a summer evening over that any day of the week.
Morning Dive 🏊
With winter around the corner, let's take a look at what is being forecasted this year in Michigan. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its winter outlook last week.
Local 4's science expert (and meteorologist) Paul Gross helped me break down what it all means.
Warmer or colder?
Overall, warmer-than-average temperatures are forecast for much of the U.S. this winter, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
They say that "the greatest likelihood for warmer-than-normal conditions are in Alaska and Hawaii, with more modest probabilities for above-average temperatures spanning large parts of the remaining lower 48 from the West across the South and up the eastern seaboard. The Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and the western Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures. No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures this winter."
Snow or no?
"Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in Alaska and Hawaii this winter, along with portions of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Drier-than-average conditions are most likely for Louisiana, parts of Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas and Oklahoma as well areas of northern and central California. The remainder of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below, near, or above-average precipitation."
Paul Gross: "Notice the orientation of that above normal stripe of projected precipitation extending east-southeast from Montana across our area and into Pennsylvania. Does that track look familiar? To me, that looks a lot like an Alberta Clipper track. If this is our predominant storm track this winter, then we'll have fewer chances at those mega-storms that come at us from Texas with 6-to-10 inches of snow, and more of those fast-moving clippers that drop 2-to-6inches of snow. It'll be interesting to see how the storm track develops!"
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