INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. – Are you ready for the madness?
It's been a thrilling five months -- with top-ranked teams dropping like flies and a trio of the country's top players duking it out for the Wooden Award -- but the college basketball season doesn't really hit its stride until the calendar flips to March.
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But you don't have to wait until the NCAA Tournament to get a taste of high stakes and desperation. Most of the country will first turn its attention to the conference tournaments. In the next week, bubble teams will make their final push for the Big Dance and championship contenders will try to cement themselves as top seeds.
That's exactly what's at stake for Michigan and Michigan State as they pack their bags for the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis. The in-state rivals are on opposite sides of the bracket, but they've both got work to do before the NCAA Tournament begins Tuesday night.
The conference as a whole features several excellent teams and a handful of elite players. Here's a full breakdown of what to expect over the next five days at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.
Meet the teams
The favorite:
Michigan State: 13-5 Big Ten, 26-5 overall
Tom Izzo's Spartans didn't win the regular season Big Ten title, but they are the clear tournament favorite heading into the weekend. As the No. 2 seed, Michigan State received a buy into the Friday quarterfinals and will play the winner of Penn State and Ohio State, two teams the Spartans dominated during the regular season.
Michigan State started the season as one of the top-ranked teams in the country, thanks to a strong returning senior class that led it to the Final Four in 2015. But after jumping out to a 13-0 start, MSU hit a rough patch and lost four of seven games, essentially eliminating the Spartans from Big Ten championship contention. As Izzo teams always seem to do, the Spartans played their best basketball down the stretch, and a 10-1 finish helped them leap from seventh to second in the conference standings.
With a Friday matchup against OSU or PSU looming, Michigan State essentially has a pass into the conference semifinals. In four games against the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions, the Spartans went 4-0, winning by a total of 92 points. The closest game was in the season finale, when MSU cruised to a 15-point win over Ohio State on senior day.
The key to Michigan State's late-season run was the emergence of Bryn Forbes and Matt Costello, who perfectly complimented Big Ten Player of the Year Denzel Valentine. Forbes turned into one of the best three-point shooters in the country, making over 50 percent of his attempts and averaging 15 points per game. Costello became the team's top inside option, averaging 10.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per contest.
Before missing four games from Dec. 22 to Jan. 7 due to injury, Valentine averaged 18.5 points per game and recorded a pair of triple doubles against Kansas and Boston College. He picked up right where he left off shortly after his return, scoring in double figures in each of the final 15 games and landing atop the conference in assists. He also ripped down at least five rebounds in 13 of the last 15 games.
With Valentine tearing up the Big Ten offensively, and Forbes and Costello making up a solid supporting cast, Michigan State has its eyes on another Big Ten Tournament title.
The contenders:
Indiana: 15-3 Big Ten, 25-6 overall
Is it possible to win a major conference title and still fly under the radar? Well, that's exactly what Indiana is doing after notching 15 Big Ten wins. The Hoosiers won the outright Big Ten regular season championship by a full two games, yet they're not considered one of the conference's top national title contenders.
One of the major questions about Indiana is its ability to win away from Assembly Hall. Indiana won all 17 home games this season, but lost four of its five true road tests -- Duke, Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan State. The only impressive road win on the Hoosier resume is a three-point win over an Iowa team that was on a three-game losing streak at the time.
Perhaps the biggest concern for Indiana is depth, after James Blackmon Jr. was lost to a season-ending injury in January. Blackmon was the Robin to Yogi Ferrell's Batman, averaging over 15 points per game and shooting 48 percent from the field. The duo gave Tom Crean the best starting back court in the conference.
Instead, Ferrell made due with Troy Williams and Thomas Bryant, who average a combined 24.5 points and 11.8 rebounds per game. The freshman Bryant shoots nearly 70 percent from the field, while Williams shoots 52.7 percent. With Ferrell running the show and efficient finishers around him, the Hoosier offense is among the most fearsome in the conference.
Maryland: 12-6 Big Ten, 24-7 overall
The most abundantly talented team in the Big Ten checks in at No. 3 in the standings. Maryland looked poised to run through its conference schedule before a pair of losses in the state of Michigan brought it back down to earth.
The Terps lost four of their last six games, but the starting lineup is as good as any in the nation. All five starters average in double figures, led by point guard Melo Trimble, who scored 14.4 per game and dished out 5.1 assists.
View: Full Big Ten standings
The real matchup problem for teams playing Maryland comes inside, where Diamond Stone and Robert Carter can score from anywhere inside the arc. They both shoot 56.1 percent, but while Stone dominates primarily on the block, Carter can leak out and beat slower defenders with his jump shot.
Jake Layman takes full advantage of the attention paid to Trimble in the backcourt and Stone and Carter in the front court. The senior scores 10.8 points per game as the team's fourth option and seemingly gets to every loose ball. Layman's jump shot is improving, but his real strength is driving to the rim and scoring off of offensive rebounds.
Maryland's bench isn't much of an offensive threat, so Mark Turgeon will rely heavily on his starting five over the next three days. Luckily for the Terps, the starting lineup is good enough to make a run.
Purdue: 12-6 Big Ten, 24-7 overall
If there's any team that can match up with Maryland inside, it's Purdue. Matt Painter's team has a trio of big men -- Isaac Haas (7 foot 2), A.J. Hammons (7 feet) and Caleb Swanigan (6 foot 9) -- that accounts for over 30 points and nearly 20 rebounds per game.
Hammons is the team's anchor, leading Purdue in points, field goal percentage and blocked shots. His 2.6 blocks per game is second best in the conference and makes opponents think twice about attacking the rim. When he comes out of the game, Painter inserts Haas, who's good enough to be a starter but plays only 14.6 minutes per game.
The Boilermakers don't have the back court firepower that most of the top Big Ten teams feature, but Hammons and Swanigan are both more than capable of taking over a game. However, if Purdue runs into a team with strong interior defense, it could put an end to their tournament run.
Iowa: 12-6 Big Ten, 21-9 overall
Less than a month ago, Iowa looked like the runaway favorite to win the Big Ten regular season title.
The Hawkeyes were ranked in the top five nationally and started the conference season 7-0, but after a loss in Bloomington on Feb. 11, Iowa's season fell off the tracks. It lost four straight games down the stretch, three of which came to Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State -- unranked Big Ten teams.
Iowa did come back for a solid win in Ann Arbor to close out the season, and scoring leaders Jarrod Uthoff and Peter Jok both exploded on offense. Uthoff and Jok account for over 40 percent of Iowa's offense, so if either one struggles during the tournament, it could signal an early exit for Fran McCaffrey's struggling squad.
Anthony Clemmons and Mike Gesell give Iowa a deep, experienced back court, and at times they can jump start the offense when the forwards are stalling. The seniors haven't had much tournament success during their Hawkeye careers, so this is their last shot to make some noise.
Wisconsin: 12-6 Big Ten, 20-11 overall
Despite a miserable non-conference season and a 1-4 start in Big Ten play, Wisconsin's season turned into a resounding success.
Coming off a trip to the 2015 national championship game, Wisconsin had to recover from the loss of four major contributors. As a result, the Badgers lost to teams like Western Illinois, Georgetown, Milwaukee and Marquette early in the season.
The Badgers were just 9-9 on the season and longtime coach Bo Ryan retired amid the struggles. But just when the NCAA Tournament looked unreachable, Wisconsin ripped off seven straight wins to get right back into the top half of the league. It started on Jan. 17, when Wisconsin erased a late deficit to upset Michigan State. Interim coach Greg Gard turned things around and the Badgers won 10 of their last 12 games to finished tied for third in the conference.
Timeline: See how Wisconsin went from National Championship participant to Big Ten bottom-feeder to sure-fire NCAA Tournament team in less than a year
Now, with wins over Michigan State, Indiana, Maryland and Iowa already on their resume, the Badgers are an outside threat to make a run and defend last year's Big Ten Tournament championship.
In the Hunt:
Michigan: 10-8 Big Ten, 20-11 overall
A once-promising season for Michigan was once again derailed by injuries and poor shooting in 2016.
Despite missing the NCAA Tournament in 2015, Michigan entered this season ranked in the top 25 and hoping to make a return trip to the Big Dance. All of John Beilein's players came back to school and an injured back court looked ready for a bounce-back season.
But even with Caris LeVert on the floor, the Wolverines were surprisingly uncompetitive against strong competition. Ten of their 11 losses came by double figures and teams like Xavier, Indiana and Michigan State embarrassed Michigan on its own court.
When LeVert went down with a leg injury, he was leading Michigan in points, rebounds and assists. He was the only player who could consistently create offense off the dribble and his absence often left the team looking stagnant.
Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman evolved into a solid guard in LeVert's wake, taking it upon himself to get to the rim and give Michigan an inside look. Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin scored more than Abdur-Rahkman, but their offense was often overly reliant on the three-point shot. When those weren't falling, the offense got ugly.
But as much as the long-range shot can be a curse, it also gives Michigan life. The Wolverines can never be counted out as long as players like Duncan Robinson have a chance to catch fire. When Robinson was converting around half of his three-point attempts, Michigan's offense looked lethal. His hot shooting led Michigan in some of its biggest wins, like those over Maryland and Texas.
If Robinson gets hot in Bankers Life Fieldhouse and Walton and Abdur-Rahkman attack the rim, a desperate Michigan team has a chance to make some noise this week. But for a program that hasn't had success as an underdog in the conference tournament, shorthanded Michigan faces a steep uphill battle.
Ohio State: 11-7 Big Ten, 19-12 overall
On the surface, Ohio State might look like one of the stronger teams in the Big Ten, but that 11-7 record doesn't tell the whole story. Of the seven other winning teams in the Big Ten, Ohio State played five of them only once. That means half of OSU's conference schedule came against teams that finished 8-10 or worse on the season.
The loss of D'Angelo Russell to the NBA Draft really hurt Thad Matt's team early. OSU suffered through a brutal three-game stretch in which it lost to UT-Arlington, Louisiana Tech and Memphis. Other than an impressive upset of Kentucky, Ohio State's best win came against an Iowa team that couldn't get out of its own way by the time it reached Columbus.
Two players that make Ohio State very dangerous on any given night are JaQuan Lyle and Marc Loving. Lyle, a freshman, is Ohio State's best offensive threat, averaging over 10 points per game and leading the team in assists. Loving is most effective when he puts the ball on the floor and plays inside-out, but he has a tendency to settle for shots beyond the arc.
Matta is an experienced tournament coach, and the young Buckeyes have definitely improved during the second half of the season, but it's unlikely they have the firepower to run through with teams like MSU and Maryland on back-to-back nights.
Cinderella teams:
Northwestern: 8-10 Big Ten, 20-11 overall
The Wildcats were well on their way to the first NCAA Tournament appearance in school history after a 12-1 non-conference season, but the Big Ten proved much tougher than their cupcake-laden first half. Northwestern lost eight of 10 games in January and February, but finished with three straight wins to rise to the top of the bottom tier of the conference.
Penn State: 7-11 Big Ten, 16-15 overall
The Nittany Lions weren't overly competitive throughout the conference season, but they did pull off a pair of upsets against Indiana and Iowa. It's unlikely Penn State will advance past Ohio State on Thursday, but if Brandon Taylor and Shep Garner (over 30 points per game combined) get going, anything can happen.
Nebraska: 6-12 Big Ten, 14-17 overall
Nebraska notched one of the most impressive wins of the college basketball season when it went into East Lansing and knocked off MSU. But after that, the Cornhuskers finished 2-9 and became an afterthought in the Big Ten.
Illinois: 5-13 Big Ten, 13-18 overall
Illinois went 4-0 against Minnesota and Rutgers and 1-13 against the rest of the conference. It took three overtimes to get one of those wins over Rutgers.
Better luck next year:
Minnesota: 2-16 Big Ten, 8-22 overall
Rutgers would have been in this category all by itself, that is until Minnesota went into New Jersey and lost to the second-worst Power 5 team in the country by 23 points.
Rutgers: 1-17 Big Ten, 7-24 overall
Rutgers went 1-25 combined in Big Ten football and basketball games this year. The Scarlett Knights are yearning for the glory days back in the Big East.
Players to watch
Denzel Valentine, Michigan State
The top player to watch this week is obviously the Big Ten Player of the Year, Spartan senior guard Denzel Valentine.
Valentine put up video game numbers this season, leading his team with 19.5 points per game but also chipping in 7.5 assists and 7.5 rebounds. As one of the top triple-double threats in the country, Valentine can beat defenses in many different ways -- passing, shooting and off the dribble. A vastly improved three-point shot has really turned Valentine into a nightmare matchup for opposing guards.
After beating up on Ohio State in the season finale, Valentine guaranteed a Spartans national championship, so look for him to turn it up a notch, if there is another notch, through the rest of March.
Thomas Bryant, Indiana
Yogi Ferrell will draw most of the headlines for the top-seeded Hoosiers, but Bryant is perhaps the most important complementary player on the team. Ferrell is an excellent shooter and an even better dribbler, but Bryant leads the team in offensive rebounding and finishes 69.8 percent of his shots.
Barring an early exit for Indiana, the athletic freshman will put together his own impressive highlight reel in Indianapolis. When he dominates the paint, Indiana's offense takes off.
Melo Trimble, Maryland
Though Trimble led Maryland in scoring and assists, the 2015-2016 season was a bit of a letdown for the sophomore after an outstanding freshman campaign. Trimble suffered through a long shooting drought during the middle of the conference season and as a result, his points, shooting percentage and three-point percentage are all down from last year.
Trimble is still explosive off the dribble and his assists have nearly doubled since a year ago (up from 3 to 5.1 per game), so maybe he'll break out as Maryland tries to take home its first Big Ten championship. If Turgeon can get his point guard to cut down on his three-point attempts, it might help Trimble settle into an offensive groove.
Zak Irvin, Michigan
Zak Irvin isn't the best player on Michigan's roster, even with LeVert out, but he might be the most important. Walton and Abdur-Rahkman have been pretty consistent since the start of February, but Irvin's confidence comes and goes with every game.
Irvin scored a season-high 22 points twice during Big Ten play, and it's no coincidence that they came in Michigan's biggest wins of the year: Maryland and Purdue. On the other hand, with the junior shooting under 40 percent in the team's last five games, Michigan limped to a 1-4 finish.
Confidence is as important to Irvin as it is to any player in the country. When he hits his first few shots, Irvin becomes a better scorer, a better rebounder and a better defender. But when Irvin starts out cold, he sometimes forces shots and disappears when he doesn't have the ball.
Irvin streakiness is often make-or-break for Michigan without LeVert on the floor. If he heats up, Michigan becomes a contender in Indianapolis. If not, it's likely off to the NIT for Beilein's crew.
Nigel Hayes, Wisconsin
Maybe the most underrated player in the conference, Nigel Hayes put together a second straight excellent season for the Badgers.
With Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker, Josh Gasser and Traevon Jackson gone, Hayes stepped into a leadership role and led Wisconsin in points and assists. He's a solid rebounder, but while breakout freshman Ethan Happ leads the Badgers in that category, Hayes' greatest improvement came in stretching his offensive game beyond the paint. Few forwards match up well with the Toledo native, so expect the Wisconsin offense to run through him this weekend.
Schedule
View the full Big Ten Tournament bracket here
Only the bottom four teams will kick off the tournament on Wednesday, as Minnesota battles Illinois and Nebraska battles Rutgers. The winners will play Iowa and Wisconsin, respectively, on Thursday.
Michigan leads off Day Two with a noon Eastern tip against Northwestern. In the only meeting this season, Michigan trailed Northwestern for most of the game but used a late run to knock off the Wildcats in Ann Arbor. That is Michigan's only win since mid-February.
Michigan State won't play until 6:30 p.m. Friday, when it begins the second session against the winner of Thursday's Penn State-Ohio State battle. The Spartans' only loss in the last six weeks came in overtime at Purdue.
Are you a true Big Ten basketball fan?
As the conference tournament gets underway, see how well you paid attention to Big Ten basketball this season by taking the quiz below. It'll help get you ready for five straight days of Big Ten action.
No matter what happens this weekend, the Big Ten is in position to send at least six teams to the NCAA Tournament. Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, Iowa and Wisconsin are all locks to have their names called on Selection Sunday.
The two most desperate teams to watch this week will be Michigan and Ohio State, which come into the tournament needing a couple of victories each to secure a spot in the Dance. Michigan will have to knock off Northwestern and Indiana to feel safe, while Ohio State faces tests against Penn State and Michigan State.
For the rest of the field, even 20-win Northwestern, the conference tournament is simply a chance to make one last splash before the season comes to a close. The Wildcats and Nittany Lions have a chance to play in lesser postseason tournaments, but the Big Ten Tournament is the last big stage they'll see.
What do you expect?
The Big Ten is loaded at the top, and there are three teams with a legitimate chance at a Final Four run this season. But before we look ahead to the NCAA Tournament, tell us who you think will take home the Big Ten Tournament crown.
Will Michigan State prove everyone right and breeze through the tournament? Will Indiana verify their regular-season title? Can Michigan finally break out of its shooting slump? Stay tuned to find out.
Let us know what you expect from Michigan State, Michigan and the rest of the Big Ten in the comments section at the bottom of this page!