How will Detroit Lions' game vs. N.Y. Giants impact their playoff odds?
Prediction tool shows how this weekend's game affects playoff picture
DETROIT – The Detroit Lions are 9-4 this season and hold a two-game lead over the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers in the NFC North Division with only three games remaining.
The website FiveThirtyEight.com did 100,000 simulations of the rest of the season and came up with each team's chance of winning their division, advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
According to those simulations, the Lions currently have an 84 percent chance of making the playoffs, a 75 percent chance of winning the NFC North and a 26 percent chance of earning a first-round bye.
The only other real contender in the division is Green Bay, which has a 21 percent chance of winning the NFC North. The Vikings have just a 3 percent chance of winning the division, because they have already lost twice to the Lions.
How much would a win this weekend impact the Lions' odds?
According to the projections, this weekend's game against the New York Giants will have a major impact on the Lions' playoff probabilities. With a win, the Lions' playoff odds would increase to 98 percent with a win, and their chance of winning the division would increase to 88 percent. They would also have a 44 percent chance of earning a first-round bye, according to the simulations.
With a win and a Packers loss in Chicago, the Lions would clinch the NFC North Division, and their chances of receiving a first-round bye would increase to 47 percent.
If both the Lions and the Packers win, the Lions have an 83 percent chance of winning the division.
If the Lions win and the Seahawks lose to the Rams, the Lions would have a 65 percent chance of earning a first-round bye, according to the simulations.
How much would a loss this weekend impact the Lions' odds?
A loss to the Giants would provide a bit of a blow to the Lions' playoff and division chances. The Lions would have a 71 percent chance of making the postseason and a 65 percent chance of winning the NFC North, according to FiveThirtyEight.
If the Lions lose and the Packers win, the likelihood of Detroit winning the division drops to 59 percent, according to the simulations.
If the Lions and Packers both lose, the Lions' playoff odds sit at 80 percent and their division odds rise to 76 percent.
You can check out all of the potential playoff scenarios with the team-by-team forecast tool here.
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