Severe storms possible late this afternoon and tonight
DETROIT – The threat for severe weather continues, with the possibility for a significant severe weather event just south of Michigan across parts of northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and northern Ohio. There are two different aspects for severe weather here in southeast Michigan that I am monitoring.
First, if we get any breaks of sunshine late this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms could pop up randomly between 5:00 and 8:00 PM, and these individual, discrete storms not only would have the potential to generate damaging wind gusts and large hail, but also a tornado. This is an uncertain scenario that is largely dependent upon if we can heat up enough, which is why the sunshine is so important.
Regardless if we get those late afternoon / early evening storms, a significant cluster of severe storms will definitely develop across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois this afternoon, and then track east-southeast. This is a particularly strong and long-lived batch of storms called a Derecho. Some computer models keep the Derecho entirely south of the state line, while some models bring the northern edge of those severe storms further north. The best chance to get any of this severe weather is south of M-59, with those of you furthest south at highest risk. Right now, the timing appears to be between 10:00 PM and 2:00 AM, and the primary threat with these storms is damaging wind, large hail, and flash flooding. The National Weather Service has already issued a Flash Flood Watch for Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Wayne, Lenawee, and Monroe Counties until Thursday morning.
The thunderstorm threat will dramatically decrease after 2:00 AM.
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