19ºF

More snow on its way to southeast Michigan

Another Arctic blast to follow

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DETROIT – Before getting to the forecast, I need to briefly explain something. Those of you who saw my forecast on Friday expected some snow on Saturday.

I was thinking perhaps 1-2" north and 2-4" south. So, what happened to the snow?

Obviously, this doesn't happen to me very often but, when it does, I want to make sure that you understand what happened and also know that *I* understand what happened. To keep this simple, on any given day I evaluate at least a half-dozen computer models to make the forecast you depend upon.

Think of it this way: the weather forecast is like a math problem, and the models suggest solutions to the problem. Sometimes the models agree and, frequently, some of them don't. On Friday, the overall consensus was that the GFS computer model had the best handle on the weather system headed our way, and I based my snowfall forecast on that.

As things turned out, the NAM model had the best solution, which was to keep the deeper moisture just south of Michigan. Again, this usually doesn't happen to me, and I want you to know that I'll remember this.

Alright, onto this week's forecast…

Tonight will start mostly clear, but clouds will increase after midnight. Wind will also pick up and should be blowing at 15 to 20 mph by morning. Lows between 0° and -5° will be set this evening, with temperatures rising a little above 0° by Tuesday morning. However, rising wind speeds will keep wind chills around -15° late tonight.

Clouds will thicken on Tuesday, and snow showers should develop during the afternoon. It's also going to become quite windy: southwest winds at 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts will have you talking about the weather if you're out in it! Highs in the upper teens, with afternoon wind chills averaging around 0°.

Snow ends Tuesday evening, with breaks in the overcast developing after midnight. Total snow accumulation should be under an inch, and wind will slowly decrease through the night. Lows in the low to mid single numbers, but wind chills likely dropping to around -10° by Wednesday morning.

Mostly sunny on Wednesday, with highs in the mid teens.

Mostly clear to partly cloudy Wednesday night, with lows averaging around -5°…those of you in the typically colder locations could see lower temps, of course. By the way, Thursday's record low is -1° set in 1963, so that record looks to be in serious jeopardy.

Partly cloudy on Thursday, with highs near 10. Thursday's record for the lowest high temperature is 9° set in 1900…so we'll have a close call with that record.

Becoming mostly clear Thursday night, with lows averaging around -9°…and lower in the typically colder suburban areas. Friday's record low is -5° set in 1934, so that record likely will be obliterated, too.

Mostly sunny on Friday, with highs in the mid teens.

Mostly clear Friday night, with lows averaging around -4°.

Mostly sunny and warmer on Saturday, with highs in the low 20s…the kids should be able to get out and play in the snow!

Increasing clouds Saturday night, with lows in the low teens.

We have the chance for a solid shovelable snow Sunday and Sunday night, but it's obviously way too early to say this with any confidence…so much can change between now and then. But keep this in mind if you'll be traveling this weekend, and I'll keep you updated through the week. Highs near 30!

Snow ends Monday morning, with partly cloudy skies developing by afternoon. Highs in the mid 20s.

Follow me on Twitter at @PaulGrossLocal4


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