32ºF

Wind Advisory continues until midnight

Temperatures are soaring, too!

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DETROIT – Sunshine that developed earlier than expected is soaring our temperatures. As of 2 p.m., temps have exploded well into the 50s, with some areas near or above 60° (16° Celsius for our Canadian friends who use the Celsius scale)! By the way, today’s record high is an oldie:  64° (18° Celsius), set way back in 1884.

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The extra heating promotes greater mixing in the lower atmosphere, which in turn is translating more of the strong wind aloft down to the surface, with wind gusts near 40 mph spreading across the area.  

 

Accordingly, the National Weather Service has posted a Wind Advisory for all of southeast Michigan until midnight, as gusts could get even stronger later this afternoon and early this evening. Remember to post any wind video or damage photos on Storm Pins…not only can we get those on the air quickly, but you also help the National Weather Service monitor the situation, as they monitor Storm Pins. And you get to see everybody else’s photos, too!

The afternoon will remain dry, but a scattered, light rain shower is possible this evening. Skies will then clear out overnight, and temperatures will drop to near 40° (4° Celsius) by dawn (which is still well above our average HIGH for the day).

Get ready to take advantage of a great day on Saturday, although it’ll still be quite breezy (southwest to west wind at 15 to 25 mph). Highs should hit the low to mid 50s (12° Celsius).

Increasing clouds Saturday night, with lows in the mid 30s (1° Celsius).

Mostly cloudy and cooler on Sunday, with highs in the mid 40s (6° Celsius).

Mostly cloudy Sunday night, with lows in the mid 20s (-4° Celsius).

Becoming partly cloudy on Monday, with highs in the mid 30s (1° Celsius). Monday is a good day to get the car washed, as I think we’ll stay mainly dry through next Thursday.

Partly cloudy Monday night, with lows in the low to mid 20s (-5° Celsius).

Partly cloudy on Tuesday, with highs in the upper 30s (3° Celsius).

Partly cloudy Tuesday night, with lows in the mid 20s (-3° Celsius).

Mostly cloudy on Wednesday, with highs in the upper 30s (3° Celsius).

Partly cloudy on Thursday, with highs in the mid 30s (1° Celsius).

And now, let’s move on to the continuing saga of next week’s east coast storm…which demonstrates why forecasting a storm a week in advance is sometimes a futile activity. If you’ve been following my articles all week long, I’ve been showing you the ECMWF and GFS models. 

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Now let’s look at the GFS model for the same time next Wednesday. Not only is it very different from the ECMWF, it’s also radically different from yesterday’s GFS model run. And by the way, yesterday I mentioned that I’d show you the GEM model today, but it’s output appears so far from reality to me that it’s not worth my time showing it to you.

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All I can say now is that the models are handling next week’s east coast storm very poorly. There is very little model run to model run consistency, nor any consistency with each other. Why? Because the upper level disturbance that will generate this storm is still way out over the Pacific, where we don’t have any weather balloons (called radiosondes) to provide data about it. Once that disturbance crosses the west coast, and can be studied by our land based radiosonde network, the models should start converging on a solution. Any meteorologist with any integrity at all would not have given a specific forecast for this storm over the past week, nor would (or should) they do it today. 

Sometimes, the models DO get a handle on a storm this far out. And we meteorologists convey that information. But more frequently, as in the case of the storm I’ve been telling you about all week, the models change the storm’s strength, track or timing for several days before trending closer together toward a common projection.

I hope this case study (done in real time) this week has been interesting and educational for you!

 

 

 

 

 


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