Mother's Day weekend cold front is changing its timing


DETROIT – As I mentioned yesterday, I cannot possibly get specific with the timing of a cold front five-to-six days in advance and have any confidence whatsoever with that timing.

Frequently, the upper level systems that cause our low pressure areas and fronts are still out over the relatively data-poor Pacific this far ahead of time, and the computer models just don’t get a handle on them until they cross the coast. 

I’ll delve into a change to our Mother’s Day weekend cold front in a moment, but let’s do things chronologically and start with the short-term forecast.

It’s been a gorgeous afternoon, but we get only one day of this, as things start heading downhill later tonight. 

However, this evening looks nice for those of your with outdoor plans ... we’ll be fine for little league games, after-dinner walks, or just some quick yard-work.

Clouds will tend to increase overnight and a couple of light showers are possible late at night.  Lows in the mid to upper 40s (that’s 8° Celsius for our Canadian neighbors). South wind at 5 to 10 mph.

Scattered light showers are possible Wednesday morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon.  Highs in the low 60s (17° Celsius).  South wind at 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday’s sunrise is at 6:24 AM, and Wednesday’s sunset is at 8:37 PM.

Showers diminish Wednesday night, and we should be dry well before the Thursday morning rush hour…no problems there.  Lows in the low 40s (6° Celsius).

Partly cloudy to mostly sunny on Thursday, with highs in the low 60s (17° Celsius).

Mostly clear Thursday night, with lows in the mid 40s (7° Celsius).

Mostly sunny on Friday…a nice end to the work week!  Highs in the upper 60s (20° Celsius).

Mostly clear and milder Friday night, with lows near 50° (10° Celsius).

Alright, here’s the deal with Mother’s Day weekend.  Yesterday’s computer models were bringing a cold front into the area Saturday night.

Today, all three long range models I’ve looked at (the ECMWF, GFS and GEM) now want to bring that front through late Saturday afternoon. So, after a beautiful start to the day, I now have to move up the shower and thunderstorm chance to Saturday afternoon into the evening. If you have outdoor plans, the morning looks good (if the front’s timing doesn’t change anymore), with rain and lightning chances increasing the farther into the afternoon we get.  Highs, however, should reach the low 70s (22° Celsius).

As I explained yesterday, those of you who have the FREE Local4Casters Weather App can check the radar anytime you want at a moment’s notice…you can stay ahead of the weather and plan accordingly.  Just search in the app store under WDIV…it’s right there. And don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (@PGLocal4 and @Local4Casters), as I’ll tweet updates…just like last Saturday when the rain accelerated and moved in a couple of hours earlier than expected.

Rain ends by midnight Saturday night, with gradual clearing after that.  Lows in the upper 40s (9° Celsius).

Now that it appears that the cold front is coming in earlier, the flip side of Saturday’s bad news is the good news of higher confidence for a dry Mother’s Day!  Expect partly cloudy skies and a somewhat breezy day, with highs in the mid to upper 60s (19° Celsius).  It’s the least I can do for all of you well-deserving moms out there.

Mostly clear Sunday night, with lows near 50° (10° Celsius).

Partly cloudy on Monday, with highs in the low 70s (22° Celsius).  Some computer models try to generate an afternoon shower, while others keep us dry.  I’m keeping a close eye on this because, as you may know by now, Monday evening is game night for the WDIV Fighting Peacocks softball team!


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