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Metro Detroit weather: Tracking Sunday snow

Next week's big winter blast is still on schedule

DETROIT – Look for more of the same tonight, as clouds hold tough, with lows in the low 30s (that’s -1 to 0 degrees Celsius for our Canadian neighbors). 

West wind at 7 to 12 mph.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy on Saturday (hopefully we’ll get a few small breaks during the afternoon.  Highs once again near 40 degrees (4-5 degrees Celsius).  West-southwest wind at 7-12 mph.

Saturday’s sunrise is at 7:45 AM, and Saturday’s sunset is at 5:01 PM.

Mostly cloudy Saturday night, with lows in the upper 20s (-1 to -2 degrees Celsius).

Sunday

Cloudy on Sunday, and the day will be dry until mid to late afternoon when a band of light snow crosses the area and continues into early evening.  There’s the possibility that a few raindrops could be mixed in, especially across our southern areas, but I’m expecting mostly snow at this point.  If we get any light accumulation, it should only be on grassy and elevated surfaces -- roads should remain just wet as the surface temperature is still above freezing. Highs in the upper 30s (4 degrees Celsius).

If you haven’t already, you should follow me on Twitter (@PGLocal4) to receive updates from me on Sunday.

Snow tapers off Sunday night, with just cloudy skies for the second half of the night.  Lows in the low 30s (-1 to 0 degrees Celsius).

Monday

Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy on Monday, and it’ll be a milder day, with highs in the mid 40s (7 degrees Celsius).

Increasing clouds Monday night, with lows in the mid 30s (1-2 degrees Celsius).

Mostly cloudy on Tuesday, and the computer models disagree sharply as to if we’ll get any rain showers.  I really can’t nail this down so far in advance, but plan on at least a chance for rain and I’ll update you as I get a better handle on this.  Highs in the mid 40s (7-8 degrees Celsius).

The two maps below show you the dramatic upper air pattern shift that will take place between the milder early part of the week and the colder end of the week.

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If you read my article yesterday, you may recall my explanation about how the various computer models were handling the mid-week storm system so differently. There are still some differences but, right now, it appears that our sharpest blast of cold air so far this season will arrive during the day on Wednesday, or Wednesday night at the latest. Depending upon how quickly temps crash, we’ll either see snow showers, or rain showers changing to snow showers, and it’ll become noticeably breeze. Temperatures won’t move much during the day…probably remaining in the mid 30s (1-3 degrees Celsius).

Thursday and Friday will be windy and very cold, with snow showers. As I mentioned yesterday, I cannot predict the wind direction this far in advance, and that exact direction is critical to determine where any persistent lake effect snow bands develop.  Our most favored trajectory is from due west…across the wide lower part of Lake Michigan. A persistent very cold west wind over those warm waters usually sets up a band somewhere along or between I-94 and M-59. A northwest wind, however, is a drier wind and also a wind traveling downslope from the higher elevation in northern Michigan and, thus, less conducive to accumulating lake effect snow.  I should be able to update you on this Monday.  Highs both days will be in the low 30s (0-1 degree Celsius), with overnight lows in the low to mid 20s (-4 to -6 degrees Celsius).  Obviously, windy conditions will make it feel much colder, and put a real bite in the air…our first real blast of winter weather this season.

SAVE THE DATE

Some of you have been asking, so here a little advance notice:  my third annual climate change webcast will be broadcast live with no scripts or teleprompter on ClickOnDetroit.com Thursday, December 8th at 12:30 PM.  I have some new graphics to show you this year that really help to explain the science and bring it down to a level that most people can understand.  And I make my annual promise:  I am not an advocate, and do not accept ANY information from advocacy groups.  I am not trying to promote a point of view.  Rather, I am an independent scientist who has earned your trust over many years to ONLY bring you science directly from the scientific community.  Keep an eye on my daily weather article next week – I’ll have information about how you can submit questions that I can answer during the webcast.  And because others are asking about what kind of winter we’ll have, I’ll discuss that, too!


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