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Monitoring severe storm risks Thursday and Friday in Metro Detroit

Chance of few showers Wednesday night

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DETROIT – The active weather pattern I promised earlier this week is on schedule.

Tonight we’ll see a few showers, and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms cross the area, with the best chance being the farther north you’ll be…those near the state line may not see much at all.  Lows will be much warmer than in past nights, just falling into the mid 60s (18 degrees Celsius).  South wind at 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday brings a scattered thunderstorm chance during the entire day.  However, even though the models are not clear on the timing and coverage, I think that any activity in the morning through early afternoon will be widely scattered…there will be many of us not receiving any rain at that time.  I feel that chances will increase as an upper level disturbance approaches, giving us a better chance for storms in the late afternoon / evening period, and some of those storms could become severe.  The Storm Prediction Center has preliminarily placed areas south of M-59 in a Slight Risk for severe storms on Thursday, and areas between M-59 and I-69 in a Marginal Risk.  If you have outdoor plans, be sure to check the radar page often on our free Local4Casters app to keep ahead of the weather, and also follow me on Twitter at @PGLocal4 for personalized storm updates.

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Highs Thursday should reach the mid 80s (29 degrees Celsius), and you’ll notice the humidity increasing, too.  Temps may end up several degrees cooler in our North Zone.  Thursday’s sunrise is at 6:00 a.m., and Thursday’s sunset is at 9:14 p.m.

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Thursday night, with lows near 70 degrees (21 degrees Celsius).

Friday could potentially start dry, then another upper level disturbance will cross the state during the afternoon, triggering another batch of severe storms (I think this batch will be more widespread than Thursday’s).  Highs in the mid 80s (29 degrees Celsius).

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Showers and thunderstorms are likely Friday night, with lows in the mid to upper 60s (19-20 degrees Celsius).

The Weekend

Saturday could potentially start with a shower, but most of the rain should have either ended before dawn, or will end first thing in the morning.  We may get some sun after that, but scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as cooler air aloft spreads overhead and destabilizes our atmosphere.  Highs in the low 80s (27 degrees Celsius).

Partly cloudy Saturday night, with lows in the mid 60s (17-18 degrees Celsius).

Partly cloudy on Sunday with only a slight chance for a stray afternoon shower.  This will be the better of the two weekend days.  Highs in the low 80s (27 degrees Celsius).

The Holiday Week

It’s hard for me to say this, but virtually the entire week ahead calls for partly cloudy skies with a possible shower or thunderstorm each day.  The reason for this is a stubborn upper level trough of low pressure (basically, a dip in the jet stream).  This keeps colder air aloft over the Great Lakes, which creates an unstable atmosphere in the afternoons when temperatures reach their warmest point of the day.  It shouldn’t rain all day each day, but there’s a chance…especially in the afternoon.  The only thing that would increase the spatial coverage of our rain chances is a front expected to remain stationary south of the state all week.  Should that front migrate farther north, then rain chances would increase.  I’ll keep a close eye on this scenario, and update you tomorrow.  Highs should start off in the low 80s (28 degrees Celsius), and gradually rise into the upper 80s (31 degrees Celsius) by the end of the week.  Lows should start comfortable…in the low 60s (17 degrees Celsius)…then rise to near 70 degrees (21 degrees Celsius) by the end of the week.


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