Metro Detroit weather forecast: A taste of fall


DETROIT – A cold front crossing the area today has ushered in a much cooler airmass -- you undoubtedly noticed the difference if you were outside today. 

The holiday weekend is almost here, and the weather should cooperate for most of it, including Arts, Beats and Eats!

Skies will become mostly clear tonight, with lows near 50 degrees (10 degrees Celsius) in our Urban Heat Island near Detroit, and in the mid to upper 40s (7-9 degrees Celsius) in rural areas.  North-northeast wind at 4 to 8 mph.

Mostly sunny skies will start our Friday, then some high clouds will build in from southeast to northwest…these clouds are on the extreme northwest edge of former Hurricane Harvey as it heads through the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys.  Highs in the upper 60s (20 degrees Celsius). Northeast wind at 5 to 10 mph.

Friday’s sunrise is at 6:59 a.m., and Friday’s sunset is at 8:07 p.m.

Partly cloudy Friday night, with lows near 50 degrees (10 degrees Celsius).  Friday night begins the Muslim Holy Day of Eid al Adha, also known as the Feast of Sacrifice, which represents the end of Hajj, an annual Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia. The day (it continues through Saturday) is one of the holiest celebrations on the Islamic calendar, and is a public holiday in many Muslim countries.  The weather will cooperate if you’ll be celebrating and, if you are, I wish you a joyous and meaningful holiday!

Saturday forecast

Partly cloudy on Saturday as some of us still deal with the edge of Harvey’s cloud shield.  Areas north and west of Detroit stand a better chance to see mostly sunny skies, while areas south and east will probably have some of those clouds.  Highs near 70 degrees (21 degrees Celsius).

Mostly clear Saturday night, with lows in the mid 50s (13 degrees Celsius).

Sunday forecast

Sunday is a bit tricky, as we have a cold front crossing the area.  Right now, the atmosphere looks too dry for the front to generate precipitation so, at this point, I’ll go with a partly cloudy forecast, with highs near 80 degrees (27 degrees Celsius).

Monday forecast

Another, stronger, cold front approaches late Monday.  All models this afternoon point toward holding off thunderstorm chances until very late in the day, or perhaps even until evening.  Obviously, it won’t take much change in timing for those storms to impact our Labor Day afternoon…I’ll keep a very close eye on the trends, and update you on this in tomorrow’s article.  As long as the front maintains the timing I currently see, highs should reach the mid 80s (29 degrees Celsius).

This stronger cold front will knock our temps back for the rest of the week, as highs Tuesday only reach the low 70s (22 degrees Celsius), and the upper 60s (19-20 degrees Celsius) Wednesday and Thursday.  Temps then start a slow rebound as we head toward the weekend, with highs in the low 70s (22 degrees Celsius) on Friday, and back into the mid 70s (24 degrees Celsius) by the weekend.  At this point, it looks dry from Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.

Turning our attention from Harvey

As Harvey’s remnants track through the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions over the next few days, we need to also focus on Hurricane Irma which has developed in the eastern Atlantic and is heading westward.  It’s way too early to even speculate on if this hurricane will impact the United States, and to illustrate this, take a look at these two long range computer models for this Sunday morning:

As you can see, these two models cannot be any more different.  The ECMWF keeps Irma on a generally westerly path just far enough south of an approaching upper level trough, potentially impacting the Virgin Islands, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Cuba, and then into the Gulf of Mexico.  Meanwhile, the GFS has the approaching upper level trough pick up the storm and curve it toward the U.S. east coast (possibly even out to sea before hitting the coast).  This is why we meteorologists don’t speculate about super long range hurricane forecasts, as too much can change.  Only if there is tremendous agreement among the long range models will we try to project a general path more than four-to-five days in advance.  Irma could become a significant storm for somebody…or perhaps even nobody.  Stay tuned…

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