The remnant circulation associated with former Hurricane Irma passed harmlessly to our south and east Wednesday night, with only a few very light showers skirting the southern third of our area. As that progresses eastward, it’s time to get ready for a fantastic stretch of Pure Michigan weather that will take us right through the weekend!
Skies tonight will clear, but that clearing combined with calm air and high humidity will once again promote fog formation, which could become quite dense in some areas. Lows in the upper 50s (15 degrees Celsius).
Fog thins and lifts Friday morning, with skies becoming mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s (26 degrees Celsius). Southeast wind at 4 to 8 mph means that temps will be a bit cooler near Lakes Erie, St. Clair and Huron, and warmer the farther west you head in our area.
Friday’s sunrise is at 7:14 a.m., and Friday’s sunset is at 7:42 p.m.
Mostly clear Friday night with some fog once again possible. Lows in the low 60s (16 degrees Celsius).
Mostly sunny both Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the low 80s (28 degrees Celsius) both days, and overnight lows in the low to mid 60s (17 degrees Celsius).
A weak cold front will approach late Sunday night into Monday, but the front doesn’t have much dynamical support associated with it, so I only expect a scattered shower or thunderstorm chance, and some of us may not even see any rain. Highs near 80 degrees (27 degrees Celsius).
Although there is a bit of uncertainty as we get toward the end of next week, at this point it looks as if we’ll stay dry and warm through the rest of the week. So far this month, we have only received 0.59” of rain, compared to an average of 1.59” through today. If we don’t get any measurable rain through next Saturday, that would be 0.59” with an average through that date of 2.62” – only 22% of normal. We’re already very dry, and this will make things even worse. We still have a lot of time left before the ground freezes for the winter so I’m not concerned yet, but the worst thing that can happen to us would be the ground freezing in drought, because then there would be no reserve soil moisture when the ground thaws in the spring. Were a very dry fall to be followed by a dry spring, then we’d be facing severe drought next summer, unless we get into a wet weather pattern.
There are no real changes to the short term forecast for Hurricane Jose, with the official National Hurricane Center five-day forecast taking it safely between Bermuda and the U.S. mainland. However, the long range model trends are concerning, because they have the storm coming uncomfortably closer to New England by the middle of next week than what they indicated a few days ago. Here are the European (ECMWF) and American (GFS) model forecasts for 5:00 p.m. next Wednesday:
Notice that the two models are remarkably close in their forecast positions. This can and likely will change, as we are still six days out, but this kind of agreement this far in advance cannot be ignored. The Local4Casters will closely monitor the situation, and we’ll keep you updated both on-air and online. Regardless of how far offshore Jose ends up, remember that the storm’s impact extends out far from the center, including high surf that will pound the northeast U.S. coast. Stay tuned…