We certainly didn’t get enough rain Wednesday to put any dent in our very dry soil moisture conditions (and some of us didn’t even get a drop), but we do have a better chance on Friday although, once again, amounts appear to be light. Shower chances increase late tonight as an upper level disturbance approaches. Lows near 50 degrees (10 degrees Celsius), with a southwest wind at 3 to 7 mph.
Here’s how our in-house high-resolution RPM model is handling the timing of Friday’s rain chances:
The most organized batch of rain will likely come late Thursday night into early Friday morning with the primary lobe of that upper level disturbance. The Friday morning rush hour could be damp in some areas. We then get a midday break…perhaps even becoming partly cloudy for the lunch hour, before scattered showers pop up randomly by mid-afternoon. These pop-ups will quickly die off by sunset, leaving only some shower chances near Lake Huron from the cold north to northwest wind coming across the relatively warmer lake. Highs Friday should reach the mid 60s as long as we get that midday sun. Southwest wind will shift to the northwest, and become brisk at 10 to 20 mph.
It appears that those of us who get the best downpours could receive 0.10 inches to 0.20 inches of rain…but not everybody will see this. We desperately need some rain and, unfortunately, after Friday there isn’t much in the forecast through the end of next week.
Friday’s sunrise is at 7:28 a.m., and Friday’s sunset is at 7:18 p.m.
Friday evening begins the Jewish High Holy Day of Yom Kippur, or Day of Atonement, and those of you heading to services probably won’t need the umbrella, although there may be a few lingering showers beforehand when you head to family Kol Nidrei dinners. If you are observing the holiday, I wish you a reflective day, and an easy fast. The remainder of the night (aside from the aforementioned showers near Lake Huron) should be dry, with lows in the low to mid 40s (6 to 8 degrees Celsius).
Some models try to maintain a stray shower near Lake Huron into Saturday morning, which I don’t agree with right now. However, even if some showers up that way did hang on into Saturday morning, they would quickly diminish as high pressure approaches. At this point, I’m planning on a dry Saturday for all of us, with lots of sunshine, and a high in the mid 60s (18 degrees Celsius).
Clear and cool Saturday night, with lows in the mid 40s (6-7 degrees Celsius).
Sunny and spectacular on Sunday, with highs near 70 degrees (21 degrees Celsius). What a gorgeous Pure Michigan fall weekend day!
Clear Sunday night, with lows in the low 50s (10-11 degrees Celsius).
Long Term Outlook
Take a look at the two jet stream maps below, which shows the pattern of that snake-like band of strongest winds aloft. That band not only is the general storm track, but it’s also the rough dividing line between colder and warm air masses. The first map shows our late-week pattern, with the prominent dip in the jet stream right over us, which ended our heat wave and ushered in the cooler air we have now. But next week, the pattern will reverse itself right back to what we had earlier this week (although not nearly as extreme). This means a solid warming trend…summer returns for those of you who like the warmer weather…at least through mid-to-late next week.
Mostly sunny with continued warming on Monday. Highs in the mid 70s (25 degrees Celsius).
Clear Monday night, with lows in the mid 50s (14 degrees Celsius).
Mostly sunny on Tuesday, with highs back near 80 degrees (27 degrees Celsius).
Clear Tuesday night, with lows near 60 degrees (15-16 degrees Celsius).
Mostly sunny on Wednesday, with highs in the low 80s (28 degrees Celsius).
The models disagree on whether a cold front will cross the area on Thursday. The ECMWF model brings the front through with a chance of showers, while the GFS maintains the big upper level ridge you see over us on the second jet stream map, and delays the front until late Friday. Regardless, both models suggest only very modest rain amounts with this front, so there’s little to no relief from our very dry conditions on the immediate horizon.