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Metro Detroit weather: Still monitoring a severe threat

Wild weather day expected on Friday

Paul Gross takes a look at the upcoming forecast. (WDIV)
Paul Gross takes a look at the upcoming forecast. (WDIV)

DETROIT – As expected, we’ve had a very active past twenty-four hours, as big batches of rain and thunderstorms have cross the area.

While the overall synoptic set-up (i.e., “weather pattern”) is pretty easy to understand, the ultra-small scale features, such as upper level disturbances, have been very difficult to ascertain. The result is that we’ve had a hard time pinpointing the exact timing of some of these batches. But things are coming into better focus as we head into tonight and Friday.

A cold front will move south across part of the area tonight, before stopping and retreating back to the north as a warm front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, with a more organized cluster of storms likely north of M-59. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. Temperatures may briefly dip into the 50s overnight, but race right back up into the low 60s (16 degrees Celsius) by dawn. Variable wind at 5 to 10 mph will become southwest at 10 to 15 mph late.

Here is a series of maps showing you our high-resolution RPM model’s interpretation of tonight’s rain and storms:

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After a mostly cloudy but otherwise quiet first half of the day, a potent cold front will cross the area by mid to late afternoon. As the front approaches, it will “mix” the lower atmosphere, and the strengthening winds aloft will translate into a windy afternoon, with gusts well over 40 mph likely.

A line of scattered showers and thunderstorms will then develop ahead of the front, and some of those storms will also tap into those strong upper level winds, could even produce gusts over 50 mph.  Accordingly, the National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory for the entire area on Friday until 7:00 p.m. Highs Friday should reach the upper 70s (26 degrees Celsius). Here’s how the RPM is handling Friday afternoon’s storms:

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Mostly clear Friday night, with lows near 50 degrees (10 degrees Celsius).

Weekend forecast

Mostly sunny on Saturday, with highs in the mid 70s (24 degrees Celsius).

Mostly clear Saturday night, with lows in the low 50s (11 degrees Celsius).

Partly cloudy to start on Sunday, then scattered showers are possible midday into the afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s (19 degrees Celsius).

Next week

Monday through Wednesday next week still look dry and pleasant, with highs in the mid 60s (17 to 18 degrees Celsius) on Monday, near 70 degrees (21 degrees Celsius) on Tuesday, and back into the mid 70s (24 degrees Celsius) on Wednesday.

Our next chance for rain is Thursday.


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