DETROIT – The next seven days are the easy part of this forecast, but by the middle of next week, there are major questions in Metro Detroit, including for Halloween.
Winds will finally relax by Thursday morning, but there will still be strong gusts around Wednesday night. Wind speeds might peak around 40 mph again when winds spike late in the evening.
We'll smoothly sail into the weekend, with at least some sunshine Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will be near normal Thursday but even chillier Friday. By Friday night, expect temperatures in the 30s across the entire area, with frost possible by daybreak Saturday.
The weekend won't be completely dry, but the rain will only take up a small portion of the two-day stretch. Showers will develop Saturday night and linger through the first half of Sunday. Dry conditions should win out by lunchtime Sunday.
Then, here comes next week. Of course, Halloween will arrive Thursday, and it might be the scariest part of the forecast. All of our longer-range models suggest a dramatic shift in our weather pattern by the second half of next week. But there are big differences in how fast that happens and how dramatic the change actually becomes.
We've been talking about cooler temperatures for trick-or-treating. That still looks likely, but now there's a possibility of showers and brisk wind to go with it. I should have just said "precipitation," because we have pretty low confidence about whether this will be all liquid or possibly an early taste of winter.
The European model, which has a better overall track record, suggests rain mixed with snow by the end of Thursday and a lot of wind to make things even more miserable.
The American GFS model has that same system way to the north. In fact, you can't even see the center of the low pressure on the map because it's up in Canada. Nevertheless, it suggests we will be dry with just breezy conditions.
It's not uncommon for the models to show that much disagreement more than a week in advance, but when the day is a holiday or major event, the discrepancy obviously gets more attention. Will these solutions change before Halloween? Probably. Will they change more than once? Probably. So take this with a grain of salt (or snow). It's the best data we have at this point.
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