Metro Detroit weather: Windy with sunshine today

Also, tracking a weekend storm

DETROIT – We should hit the low 40s (6 degrees Celsius) before it’s all said and done, although the west wind at 15 to 25 mph will make it feel cooler.

Today’s sunset is at 5:16 p.m.

After a mostly clear evening, skies become partly to mostly cloudy later at night. Lows in the upper 20s (-2 degrees Celsius). Southwest wind at 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday will feature a cold front crossing the area with a band of snow showers, possibly mixed with some rain to the south. Highs near 40 degrees (4 to 5 degrees Celsius).

Mostly cloudy, with lows in the low 20s (-5 degrees Celsius).

Becoming partly cloudy on Wednesday, with colder highs in the upper 20s (-2 degrees Celsius).

Increasing clouds Wednesday night, with lows in the low to mid 20s (-4 to -5 degrees Celsius).

Cloudy on Thursday, with some rain possible by late afternoon. Highs back into the mid 40s (7 degrees Celsius).

Rain is likely Thursday night, with lows near 40 degrees (4 to 5 degrees Celsius).

We still may have linger rain showers in the area Friday, with highs near 50 degrees (10 degrees Celsius).

Weekend Outlook – Tracking a Storm

A big ribbon of moisture will extend from Louisiana all the way up to Michigan. There’s not much question about the copious amounts of rain that will fall in association with this.

However, where things get tricky is the atmosphere’s thermal profile across southeast Michigan (in other words, the temperature as you go from the surface aloft to where the precipitation is generated in the clouds).

There are differences in the computer models as to how much of us will see rain Saturday, and if any of us will see a changeover to accumulating snow. Based upon a type of model that we call Ensembles, which take many different variations of the models and average them out, most of us should see some rain develop.

The big question is if any cold air to the northwest will make inroads to the southeast and change the rain to snow. This type of detail is very difficult to try and resolve so far in advance, so stay tuned – we’ll update you daily this week.

Based upon those ensemble computer models, highs in the low to mid 40s (6 degrees Celsius) appear likely.

Sunday is also a question mark, but for a different reason. Both the European and American GFS models bring a second round of moisture through, but in colder air that will likely make this one snow. The differences in the models involve timing: The Euro has that snow falling Sunday morning, while the GFS ends the snow Saturday night. Again, this is something we’ll have to update you on through the week. Highs Sunday should be in the upper 30s (3 to 4 degrees Celsius).

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