Weather models disagree: Why Friday’s snow forecast is tricky for Metro Detroit

Computer models predicting different outcomes

Four different weather models predicting four different outcomes for precipitation in Michigan at 6 p.m. on March 3, 2023. (WDIV)

4Warn Weather – You often hear meteorologists talk about different weather “models.”

Well, this Friday is another tricky forecast, with some thanks to computer models predicting different outcomes for Metro Detroit. A system is expected to arrive in our area Friday, but the exact type of precipitation we’ll receive is up in the air.

Precipitation type is highly sensitive to the track of the low pressure headed our way and how that dictates the temperatures. Pardon me if you’ve heard this before, but a degree or two difference could have major implications on precipitation type and totals at the end of this week.

I wanted to show you a snapshot of the same time frame (Friday, March 3, at 6 p.m.) comparing four different weather models. This is me being fully transparent that the models are not in complete agreement.

Here are the different models and their predictions:

EURO model

EURO weather model for Michigan at 6 p.m. on March 3, 2023. (WDIV)

GRAF model

GRAF weather model for Michigan at 6 p.m. on March 3, 2023. (WDIV)

GFS model

GFS weather model for Michigan at 6 p.m. on March 3, 2023. (WDIV)

NAM model

NAM weather model for Michigan at 6 p.m. on March 3, 2023. (WDIV)

Uncertain snow totals

These computer models are spitting out significant variations in snow totals for Friday.

Some models show snow totals as low as less than 2 inches, where rain is expected to cut down on the snowfall projections. Other predictions show snow totals as high as 8 inches or more for the models that keep the precipitation as all snow throughout the storm, instead of rain or a wintry mix.

Blending the models together would give us a forecast of around 4 inches of snow accumulation Friday.

Full forecast here: Tracking end-of-the-week snowfall as Metro Detroit stays mostly mild until Friday

Stay with your 4Warn Weather team for updates!

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About the Author:

Ashlee Baracy is an Emmy award-winning meteorologist who was born and raised in Metro Detroit. You can catch her 4Warn Weather forecasts weekday mornings, at noon and streaming on Local4+.