LIVE RADAR: Local 4Casters tracking severe storm risk for Metro Detroit

Next few hours critical

By Paul Gross - Meteorologist

DETROIT - Everything we discussed in great detail yesterday remains valid today, except for one thing: clouds and a large area of rain, which was not depicted on a single computer model yesterday, crossing the area during the first half of the afternoon, which has robbed us of some of the instability needed to generate severe storms.

READTornado warning issued for Genesee, Lenawee counties

The National Weather Service confirmed a tornado touched down in Vernon, Michigan Thursday evening.

The severe thunderstorm warning for Lenawee County has been CANCELED. A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for Washtenaw County until 5:15 p.m.

Local 4Casters are carefully watching hi-resolution GOES-16 satellite images to see if any sunshine behind this batch of rain will make it into our area and, as of 3:00 p.m., some breaks in the clouds were suddenly developing to our south.  

We cannot rule out some sun but, if we get any, will it warm us up enough?  The margin of error is razor-thin, but we still have to keep open a narrow window of opportunity for severe storms between roughly 5:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. due to the very impressive wind field aloft (also discussed yesterday).  In fact, if we realize enough instability for severe storms, a tornado would not at all surprise us.

We strongly urge you to make sure you have fresh batteries in your weather radio and have it armed and ready to go, and to check the radar often on the FREE Local4Casters App.  

If you’re one of the few who doesn’t have our FREE app, just search under WDIV in the App Store -- it’s right there.  And by the way, remember that Storm Pins is now part of our app -- you don’t have to have two apps now.  

If you (safely) video any severe weather happening, or photograph any damage aftermath, post those as quickly as possible on Storm Pins (you’ll see it in the pull down menu on the app). Not only do you help us here at Local 4, but you also help the National Weather Service -- which in turn helps everybody in southeast Michigan.

Whatever storms we get should move out by mid-evening, with cloudy skies on only an isolated shower or spot of drizzle left over.  Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 40s (5 to 6 degrees Celsius) by dawn.  It’ll continue to be a windy night, with south to southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph, with higher gusts.

Cloudy on Friday, with showers developing by early afternoon. Temperatures will be steady to slowly falling in the low to mid 40s (5 to 6 degrees Celsius), with southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph.

Friday’s sunrise is at 7:46 a.m., and Friday’s sunset is at 7:40 p.m.

Cloudy Friday night, with lows in the upper 20s (-2 degrees Celsius).

Mostly cloudy to start on Saturday, then hopefully becoming partly cloudy during the afternoon.  Highs in the upper 30s (4 degrees Celsius) will reminder us that Thursday’s warm temperatures were just a tease.

Partly cloudy Saturday night, with lows in the low 20s (-5 degrees Celsius). Brrr.

After some sunshine to start on Sunday, clouds increase.  Highs again in the upper 30s (4 degrees Celsius).

Today’s long-range models still show no big storms affecting us next week.

Here’s a brief rundown:

  • Monday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 30s (4 degrees Celsius).
  • Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low 40s (5 to 6 degrees Celsius).
  • Wednesday: A weak upper level disturbance moves eastward somewhere in the region (the models are notoriously poor at these weak disturbances so far in advance).  The day could be dry, or could have a few light showers.  Highs in the mid 40s (8 degrees Celsius).
  • Thursday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 40s (9 degrees Celsius).
  • Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low 50s (11 degrees Celsius).  Nice way to end the work week!

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