Metro Detroit weather forecast: A tough road for 'Irma showers'

By Paul Gross - Meteorologist
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As expected, we’ve had little to no shower activity across the area today.

Some light “Irma showers” have tried to make inroads, but the air above us is quite dry, and most of that rain has evaporated before reaching the ground.  While a few, light showers are possible tonight, don’t hold your breath for rain…and think about turning on those sprinklers once again tomorrow.  Lows should drop into the upper 50s (14-15 degrees Celsius), with calm air.

Expect varying amounts of sun and clouds during the day on Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s (25 degrees Celsius).  Southeast wind at 4 to 7 mph.

Thursday’s sunrise is at 7:12 a.m., and Thursday’s sunset is at 7:44 p.m.

Becoming mostly clear Thursday night, with lows near 60 degrees (15-16 degrees Celsius).

As the Local4Casters have been telling you for the past few days, get ready for a spectacular Friday through Sunday period, with mostly sunny skies, and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s (26-28 degrees Celsius).  What an awesome late summer / early fall weekend!  Take advantage of it…you KNOW that weekends like this will soon be added to the endangered species list.

Over the past few days, the computer models have been trying to bring a cold front our way late in the day Sunday.  However, I’ve seen too many times over the years how hurricanes in the Atlantic (such as Jose – more on that below) slow our weather patterns down…something that the models don’t latch onto immediately.  So I’ve held fast to the philosophy that this front will not get here until Monday…I’ll keep a close eye on this.  Assuming that the front comes through Monday, I’ll put the chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for that day, and we’d better get some because, if we don’t, it could be another four to seven days before we have another rain chance.  That’s more beautiful fall weather, for sure, but we don’t want to get into drought conditions before the ground freezes for the winter.  There’s still plenty of time, of course, but the Local4Casters will monitor our growing rain deficit very closely.

Hurricane Jose

Hurricane Jose continues as a minimal hurricane with maximum sustained winds of seventy-five miles per hour. 

As you can see here on the National Hurricane Center’s official five-day forecast, Jose is expected to remain safely between Bermuda and the U.S. mainland as either a minimal hurricane or a strong tropical storm…for those five days.  Beyond those five days, though, things get very, very uncertain.  Steering currents become very weak due to the expansive Bermuda High, a large area of high pressure that sets up every summer over the Atlantic. 

As we’ve already learned with previous storms this season, long range hurricane forecasts can have very large errors.  And just to emphasize this point, yesterday, the European model kept Jose far out at sea, while the American model brought it closer to the coast.  Today, those two models have completely flip-flopped.  In fact, it’s possible that Jose’s path can take a second loop next week…adding to the uncertainty.  There is no immediate threat to the East Coast, and there might not be at all.   But many different scenarios are still in play, so the Local4Casters will monitor Jose and be your source of trusted information without the hype.  Please ignore some of the “Fake Weather” you’ll undoubtedly see on social media.

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