Metro Detroit weather: Monitoring a tricky weekend forecast

Dry stretch continues in Southeast Michigan

By Paul Gross - Meteorologist

Today’s computer models didn’t do much to increase our forecast confidence for this weekend’s weather, although there are some trends developing that do appear helpful, as we’ll describe below.

But first, keep watering those flowers and lawns.  Today’s warm temperatures were accompanied by a sharp drop in dewpoint temperatures behind yesterday’s cold front, and you undoubtedly felt the result:  a very dry heat that only served to enhance evaporation of moisture from the soil (and your skin…moisturizer sure came in handy today).  

Wednesday night

Skies will remain mostly clear overnight, with lows similar to last night’s lows…in the low 60s (16 degrees Celsius) in our Urban Heat Island, and cooler in rural areas.  Unfortunately, wind will die off and become just calm air overnight, so there won’t be any breeze coming in the windows.

Thursday

Mostly sunny again on Thursday, with highs in the mid 80s (29 to 30 degrees Celsius).  Southeast wind at 4 to 8 mph will keep those of you near the big lakeshores a bit cooler.

Thursday’s sunrise is at 6:08 a.m., and Thursday’s sunset is at 9:10 p.m.

Partly cloudy Thursday night, with lows in the mid to upper 60s (19 to 20 degrees Celsius).

Friday

Partly cloudy on Friday, warmer, and starting to become more humid, with highs near 90 degrees (32 degrees Celsius).

Partly cloudy with a stray shower or thunderstorm Friday night, but most of us probably won’t see any rain.  Warm and muggy, with lows near 70 degrees (21 degrees Celsius).

The weekend

A weak cold front will slide downstate on Saturday and basically lose its identity and wash out.  Most models today only give us very modest chances for a couple of thunderstorms on Saturday.  We know that a lot of weddings and graduation parties are going on (trust us…you’ve been e-mailing, tweeting and Facebook messaging us), and the best we can say is that, while widespread thunderstorms are not expected, there may be a few around.  

So if you have plans that call for outdoor activities, you will be well served by checking the awesome radar page on our FREE Local4Casters app.  Just search under WDIV in the app store, and you’ll see it right there.  When you open the app, it opens right to the radar page, which you can zoom and pan with your fingers to customize which area you want to look at.  

It’s SO simple…just check often to monitor any potential development so you can stay a step ahead of the weather.  We’ll be hot and humid on Saturday, with highs in the low 90s (33 degrees Celsius), and muggy, oppressive lows Saturday night in the low 70s (22 degrees Celsius).

The computer models seem to suggest a slightly better chance for a thunderstorm on Sunday, although this is by no means an all-day affair.  Again, keep checking our app if you have outdoor plans.  Expect another hot and humid day, as the temperature once again soars into the low 90s (33 degrees Celsius), and lows Sunday night in the mid 70s (23 degrees Celsius).

Finally…Real Rain

While rain chances over the weekend will be hit and miss, rain chances Monday into Monday night look pretty strong as a more meaningful cold front crosses the state.  That’s great news for everybody except the WDIV Fighting Peacocks softball team…we play on Monday nights.  

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase all day, and (hopefully) many of us will get between one-half inch and one inch of rain.  We actually need much more than that, but we’ll take whatever we can get at this point.  Some of us, if we don’t get any rain over the weekend, will have gone through the first half of July without any rain before we get to Monday.  

It’ll be one more hot, humid day, with highs in the upper 80s (31 degrees Celsius).  If the front slows down and we keep any sunshine into the early afternoon, then we’ll easily surpass 90 degrees (32 degrees Celsius) again.

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