Metro Detroit weather: Rain, storms possible as temperatures rise this week

Hope for holiday weekend

By Paul Gross - Meteorologist

DETROIT - As mentioned Monday, we are once again going to enter an active weather pattern, but all hope is not lost. Put simply, it’s not going to rain all day every day, and with a little luck, we might even be able to salvage some of the holiday weekend.

Clouds will increase tonight, but most of the night should be dry. There’s a chance that a shower could move in to the western part of our West and South zones very late at night but, given the very dry atmosphere overhead, there’s a better chance that we’ll remain dry well into the morning rush hour.

Lows tonight won’t be nearly as chilly, generally falling to around 50 degrees (10 degrees Celsius). Northeast wind at 5 to 10 mph.

Showers develop either near the end of or just after the Wednesday morning rush hour, and then end during the early afternoon with sunshine returning after that. So take both the umbrella and sunglasses with you when you head out the door. As long as the sun arrives on time, highs should reach the low 70s (22 degrees Celsius) -- warmer if the sun arrives earlier, and cooler if it arrives later.

Southeast wind at 10 to 15 mph means two things: First, it’ll be much cooler once again near Lakes Erie, St. Clair and Huron and, second, elevated lake levels mean that there could be some shoreline high water issues near those lakes.

As a result, the National Weather Service has once again issued lakeshore flood advisories for Wayne and Macomb counties from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. Wednesday and for Monroe County from 6 a.m. to 2 p.m. Wednesday.

Partly cloudy and much milder Wednesday night, with lows in the low 60s (16 degrees Celsius).

Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are possible Thursday morning into the early afternoon, with some sun building in by mid-to-late afternoon.

Highs near 80 degrees (27 degrees Celsius). Note: If the approaching cold front, which is currently pegged to cross the area early afternoon, ends up delayed by a few hours, then strong early to mid afternoon storms would be possible.

Becoming mostly clear Thursday night, with lows in the mid 50s (13 degrees Celsius). 

Mostly sunny to start on Friday, then increasing clouds. Highs in the low 70s (22 degrees Celsius). 

Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday night. Lows in the low 60s (16 degrees Celsius). 

Holiday weekend weather

As mentioned yesterday, the holiday weekend forecast is very challenging this far in advance because, like last week, we’ll have a front oscillating back and forth north and south of us through the week into the weekend. The trend in today’s computer models is to keep the front close by to our south Sunday and Monday.

If it sinks into central Ohio and Indiana before stopping, then we end up with much more dry weather than wet those two days. Conversely, if it hangs up closer to the state line, then showers become more likely, at least the farther south you are in our area.

Needless to say, the farther north you live, the better the chance for more dry than wet. So, based upon our extensive review of this afternoon’s computer model suite, here’s what we anticipate:

Saturday: We’ll be in the warm sector south of the front, so there’s a shower and thunderstorm chance throughout the day. Temps will be warm, though, with highs in upper 70s (26 degrees Celsius), with some humidity, too.

Sunday: That front has sagged south of us. As long as it’s far enough south, we should be dry, with highs in the mid 70s (23 degrees Celsius). 

Memorial Day: The front will start a move back to the north (and this is the most tenuous part of the forecast), but may not get far enough north to give us showers before the end of the day.

Our South Zone is at greatest risk to get a shower -- if any of us get a shower. With some luck, we’ll hopefully stay dry. Fingers crossed, and stay tuned on this.  Highs Monday in the low 70s (22 degrees Celsius).

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