Metro Detroit weather: Scattered showers, thunderstorms coming up

Showers could begin overnight

By Paul Gross - Meteorologist

DETROIT - This morning’s rain moved in and out right on schedule, and sunshine is now building into the area from southwest to northeast. We’ll keep the clear skies into the evening, then clouds increase later at night.

It’s possible that we could see a shower or thunderstorm toward dawn, but most of the night should be dry. Lows in the low to mid 60s (17 degrees Celsius). South wind at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday will feature scattered showers and thunderstorms in the morning, perhaps lingering into the very early afternoon before ending. Although several parameters suggest the potential for strong or severe storms, the fact that we’ll get this weather in the morning, when it’s cooler, means that the atmosphere will be less unstable.

In fact, the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook for Thursday starts with a marginal risk around Toledo, and increases eastward steadily to an Enhanced Risk by the time you get into Pennsylvania. Be very careful if driving out east on Thursday. Keep a close eye on our app’s radar.

Around here, even though the cold front goes through in the early afternoon, that won’t be early enough to cool us off yet, developing sunshine will allow temperatures to rise to near 80 degrees (27 degrees Celsius). It’ll become windy, as well, with 20 to 30 mph winds shifting from the southwest to the west behind the cold front crossing the area.

Thursday’s sunrise is at 6:05 a.m., and Thursday’s sunset is at 8:55 p.m.

Mostly clear to partly cloudy Thursday night, with lows in the low to mid 50s (11 to 12 degrees Celsius).

Partly cloudy on Friday, as the Thursday cold front settles far enough south of the state to keep the rain away. Highs in the low 70s (21 to 22 degrees Celsius).

Increasing clouds Friday night, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing as that front starts moving back to the north. Lows near 60 degrees (15 to 16 degrees Celsius).

Holiday weekend

Saturday: We pop back into the warm sector (the front passes north of us), so highs soar back up to near 80 degrees (27 degrees Celsius). Are you used to this weather whiplash yet? Although it won’t rain all day, there will be a period of showers and thunderstorms as the front moves back toward us, so monitor developments on our app’s radar if you have outdoor plans.

Sunday: Most computer models stop the Saturday front’s southward movement in central Ohio and Indiana. That should keep most of the rain away, although it’s a very close call for areas south of 8 Mile, and especially our South Zone. At this point, we are keeping things dry for most of us, with a possible shower toward the South Zone. Highs in the mid 70s (25 degrees Celsius) will be perfectly acceptable if we can keep the rain away.

Memorial Day: That front to our south starts a move back this way, but we are holding off the rain chances until Monday night right now. Clouds may increase, but (and this part of the forecast has a razor thin margin of error), we hope to remain dry for the holiday with highs in the low to mid 70s (24 degrees Celsius).

Keep in mind that very small changes in the projected position of that front will have huge ramifications in our forecast. We will keep a very close eye on the models, and update you as often as we can.

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