Metro Detroit weekend weather forecast continues to change

Rain showers develop overnight Friday

By Paul Gross - Meteorologist

Paul Gross takes a look at the upcoming Metro Detroit weather forecast for May 16, 2018. (WDIV)

DETROIT - As we explained in Tuesday's article, the weekend forecast has been quite challenging, and the seemingly comforting agreement suggested by the computer models has fallen apart.

Wednesday's forecast represents the very best that we can do given the poor model performance, and we have to introduce some changes into the weekend forecast from what we told you Tuesday.

On Wednesday night, however, there are no changes. Expect another quiet night, with just some patches of high, thin cirrus clouds from time to time. Lows will be very comfortable in the mid 50s (13 degrees Celsius), so open the windows for a good night of sleeping weather. Wind will become calm.

Mostly sunny on Thursday -- another very pleasant day. Highs in the the upper 70s. North-northeast wind at 5 to 10 mph means that it’ll be cooler near the Lake Huron shoreline.

Thursday’s sunrise is at 6:10 a.m., and Thursday’s sunset is at 8:50 p.m.

Becoming partly cloudy Thursday night, with lows near 50 degrees (10 degrees Celsius).

Partly cloudy on Friday, with cooler highs near 70 degrees (21 degrees Celsius).

Increasing clouds Friday night, with rain showers developing overnight. Lows in the mid 50s (12 degrees Celsius).

Huron River near Hamburg

Flood warnings continue for the Huron River near Hamburg. The river is cresting today at major flood stage, which means that major flooding is occurring. The river will slowly recede through the weekend, but won’t fall below flood stage until sometime on Monday, according to current projections.

The weekend

As mentioned above, the Saturday forecast has changed, and we now have to introduce a chance of showers. Although the computer models haven’t shown much reliability with this particular weather pattern, there is a suggestion that the best chance of showers is in the morning through lunchtime, with a smaller chance in the afternoon. Highs in the low 70s (22 degrees Celsius).

Mostly cloudy Saturday night, with lows in the mid 50s (13 degrees Celsius).

Although the models disagree, two of our three main models suggest that the next rain chance may not come in until Sunday night, and that we now may keep the bulk of the day dry. Stay tuned. This forecast could change. Highs should reach the mid 70s (25 degrees Celsius).

Next week

The delay in the Sunday rain now pushes that chance more likely into Monday. Then it appears that we’ll be mostly dry and warm through the end of the week. Highs should rise from the low to mid 70s (22 degrees Celsius) on Monday to the upper 70s (26 degrees Celsius) by the end of the week.

Memorial Day weekend outlook

The super-long range computer models (called Ensembles) continue to suggest a mostly dry and warm Memorial Day weekend. Obviously, we’re still quite a ways out, so this could change. But things at least look optimistic right now!  We’ll keep you updated…

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