3 keys for Lions against first-place Cardinals Sunday

Teams battling for No. 1 seed in NFC

DETROIT – When the 2014 NFL season kicked off in early September, the NFC teemed with potential Super Bowl candidates. Leading the pack was defending champion Seattle, along with the division rival San Francisco 49ers. From the East, the exciting Eagles and revamped Cowboys figured to slug it out, while the Saints and Panthers did the same down south.

Don't forget the sure-fire two-team race to the finish in the NFC North, as Aaron Rodgers and the Packers tried to fend off the powerful Chicago Bears. These were considered the top teams in the conference, a loaded group of powerhouse teams that had proven themselves over the course of the past 12 months.

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Fast forward to Nov. 16, when two first-place squads will duke it out for the top seed in the NFC. It's the Lions and Cardinals, not any of the teams listed above, that will meet in Arizona Sunday with the top spot through Week 11 on the line.

The Lions have traditionally struggled in Arizona, including a 25-21 loss in University of Phoenix Stadium last year. Below are some of the keys to this weekend's matchup, as the Lions try to move to 8-2 on the year.

Can either team run the football?

The obvious answer to this question is a resounding "absolutely not." The Lions' impressive ability to stop the run is overshadowed only by their surprising inability to run the ball themselves. Opponents are rushing for only 71.3 yards per game against the Lions, which is second only to the Denver Broncos (67 yards per game). On the other side of the ball, Reggie Bush and Joique Bell have led a rushing attack that averages just 77.8 yards per game, second worst in the NFL.

The Cardinals have experienced similar developments through nine games, holding opponents to 78.6 yards per game on the ground, but gaining just 83.6 per game themselves.

Read: Detroit's playoff resume through Week 10

Detroit will again rely on the depth of its defensive line to continue gobbling up opposing running backs, as Nick Fairley misses more time with an injured knee. C.J. Mosely has done a nice job filling in for the 308-pounder alongside Ndamukong Suh, and a host of options have contained rushing attempts from the outside. If the line continues to hold up, it will be a long day for Arizona's Andre Ellington.

For the Lions, finding yards on the ground won't get any easier. Injuries to LaAdrian Waddle and Larry Warford on the right side of the offensive line have thrust rookies Cornelius Lucas and Travis Swanson into bigger roles. That disadvantage, along with the questionable status of Bush, leave most of the work load firmly on the back of Bell.

The difficulty both teams will have running the ball leads into the next key, which is...

Will Drew Stanton really beat his former team?

The former Michigan State Spartan is popular among Lions fans, not only thanks to his college days, but also because of his three seasons as a backup in Detroit.

Stanton will likely be playing without much of a rushing threat to turn to, so he'll have to make some plays downfield to get the offense moving. Luckily for Cardinals fans, Stanton loves throwing the deep ball, as he throws the ball downfield as much as any gunslinger in the league.

But with those high-risk passes comes a decrease in efficiency. Stanton has completed less than half of his pass attempts this season despite throwing three touchdowns and no interceptions.

The Cardinals were an average passing offense even with their starting quarterback Carson Palmer, who will miss the rest of the season after tearing his ACL. As a team, Arizona ranks 13th in the NFL in passing yards per game, with 247.3. To put that number in perspective, a Lions team that has struggled to throw the ball at times averages 262.3 yards per game.

Detroit allows just 212.1 passing yards per game (3rd in the NFL), but a breakout game from Stanton wouldn't be unheard of. The Lions faced a similar matchup on Oct. 5 when Kyle Orton took over the Bills' offense and torched the Lions for 308 yards on 30 for 43 passing.

Are the Lions legit contenders?

Yes, the Lions are 7-2, and sure, FootballOutsiders.com does have their chance to make the playoffs at over 90 percent heading into the matchup, but one thing Jim Caldwell has learned since coming to Detroit is that the fans aren't easily convinced by fast starts. Of the team's seven victories, only two (Green Bay and Miami) have come against teams that currently own a winning record. But a win over the 8-1 Cardinals would really help the Lions burst onto the scene.

Detroit has started a season 6-2 four times since 2000, but none of those teams have improved to 8-2 through Week 11. The Lions know what's at stake Sunday. A win would not only give them the best record in the NFL, it would place them temporarily atop the packed NFC race for a first-round playoff bye.

Imagine the Lions sitting at home during the first week of the playoffs, not because they didn't qualify, but because they were one of the two best teams in the conference. And then the road to the NFC Championship game would go through Detroit, where the Lions have a legitimate chance to finish 7-1 this season.

Even if a tenure atop the NFC doesn't last for the Lions, a win on Sunday would give them the all-important tie-breaker over the Cardinals if necessary for seeding down the road. Detroit already owns an impressive 5-1 record within the conference, and another win would further improve the chances that it hosts a playoff game.

If the Lions are even close to as good as their 7-2 record indicates, the implications of this matchup will be a nonfactor come game time. But if they return from Arizona with a loss, questions about the true potential of this team will emerge, fair or not.

Prediction

Many fans have used the late-game comebacks as reason not to believe in the Lions, but it can be looked at from an opposite approach. The final minutes of a game matter just as much as the early minutes, whether the Lions come from behind or not. A touchdown is worth six points in the first quarter and six points in the fourth quarter, with any amount of time on the clock. Should the Lions be worried about slow starts? Absolutely, but scoring late in games shouldn't be a reason not to believe in this team.

Despite the Cardinals' 8-1 record, the Lions have played just as well throughout the first 10 weeks. With Palmer out and Stanton in, the Lions have a chance to expose the average passing attack of the Cardinals by shutting down the run and forcing the young quarterback to make short, accurate passes. If Teryl Austin forces Stanton to convert on third downs and lead long, sustained drives, the backup will be out of his comfort zone and more prone to making mistakes.

The Lions should see an improvement in their passing offense against a Cardinal defense that allows 274.2 yards per game (30th). If Matt Stafford can use an increasingly healthy arsenal of weapons (Eric Ebron and Joseph Fauria may return Sunday), then Detroit should gain the upper hand and come out of Glendale as the top team in the conference.

Now, tell me what you think!

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