Playoff scenarios: How can the Tigers get in?

Toronto, Baltimore, Detroit, Seattle battle for 2 wildcard spots

DETROIT – The Tigers are down, but not out.

With four games left in the season, the Tigers' playoff odds aren't great, but they're one of the few teams still alive in the American League. The Tigers trail both the Blue Jays and the Orioles by 1 1/2 games, and lead the Mariners by 1/2 game.

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Here's how the current wildcard standings look:

What's left for the Tigers

Friday: Daniel Norris starts for the Tigers against the Braves' Matt Wisler. Norris has been solid in the month of September, allowing just eight earned runs in 23 innings, while striking out 30 batters. Wisler has never faced the Tigers, and allowed at least five runs in five of his last nine starts.

Saturday: Jordan Zimmermann gets a spot start, despite being completely ineffective in each of his last four starts. Zimmermann has allowed 23 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings over those four starts, including five home runs and only six strikeouts. Aaron Blair will start for the Braves, coming off a five-run start that raised his ERA over 8.00.

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Sunday: Aces collide in the series finale as a red-hot Justin Verlander takes the mound against Julio Teheran. Verlander has planted himself squarely in the AL Cy Young Award discussion with a dominant three months and hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start since June 26. Teheran is Atlanta's best starting pitcher, but allowed six runs and 10 hits over four innings against the Phillies in his last start. This will also be the last game the Braves play at Turner Field, which will give some extra motivation to the home team.

Monday: The Tigers and Indians will play a makeup game after Thursday's rainout. If the Tigers need a win to stay alive, Michael Fulmer will likely get the start. Cleveland will probably be in playoff mode by the time this game begins, so there's a chance the Indians won't send their best lineup out in this one-game trip to Detroit.

What's left for the rest

Toronto Blue Jays: Toronto plays a three-game series in Boston. The Red Sox are two games behind the Rangers for the best record in the American League and one game ahead of the Indians for home field advantage in the ALDS.

Baltimore Orioles: Baltimore plays a three-game series in New York. The Yankees were eliminated from playoff contention Thursday night, so they don't have anything to play for other than young players fighting for their jobs next season.

Seattle Mariners: Seattle plays three home games against the Oakland Athletics. The Athletics are in last place in the West Division, so those are winnable games for the desperate Mariners.

If the Tigers win all 4...

...their chances to at least force a Game 163 are very strong. Finishing 4-0 would put the Tigers at 89-73 for the season, so both the Blue Jays and the Orioles would have to sweep their final series to eliminate the Tigers. This would also make it impossible for the Mariners to pass the Tigers.

I think this is the only realistic way the Tigers can win a wildcard spot without having to play a Game 163 on Tuesday. If the Tigers finish 4-0 and the Blue Jays or Orioles (or both), lose their final series, the Tigers would jump them and earn a wildcard spot.

If the Tigers win 3 games...

...it might be tough to get into the playoffs. The Tigers would finish with 88 wins, meaning they would need either the Blue Jays or the Orioles to lose two of their final three games to finish in a tie. If there's a tie, the Tigers would travel to either Toronto or Baltimore for Game 163.

If both Toronto and Baltimore go 1-2 in their final games, and all three finish with 88 wins, Toronto and Baltimore would play a Game 163, and the winner would be awarded the first wildcard spot. The loser would play the Tigers, with the winner of that game earning the second wildcard spot.

If both Toronto and Baltimore go 1-2 and Seattle goes 3-0, giving all four teams 88 wins, the four teams would be seeded and there would be two Game 163 matchups. The two winners of those play-in games would be declared the wildcard winners. In this scenario, it appears the Tigers would visit the Mariners, as the Mariners have the best winning percentage (.600) in games against the other tied teams, while the Tigers have the worst winning percentage (.429) in those games. Baltimore (.455) would likely play in Toronto (.531).

If the Tigers win 2 games...

...the season is probably over. Detroit would finish with 87 wins, which is what Baltimore and Toronto are already at. The Tigers would only stay alive if those teams got swept in their final series, or if one of the teams got swept and the Mariners finished 2-1 or worse.

If the Orioles or Blue Jays got swept and also finished with 87 wins, and the Mariners didn't win each of their final three games, the Tigers would play that team for the second wildcard spot. If that scenario happened and the Mariners also finished with 87 wins, one team would host another team, and the winner would host the third team, with the winner of that second game earning the second wildcard spot.

If the Tigers win fewer than 2 games...

...they would finish with 86 or 85 wins and have no chance to earn a wildcard spot, no matter what the rest of the teams do in the final series.

So you're saying there's a chance?

As I said, the Tigers' odds to make the playoffs aren't great, but they're very much alive with four winnable games ahead.

The Braves have been a very good team over the last two weeks, winning 10 of their last 11 games, including three straight series wins over playoff hopeful teams. Since a 44-79 start through Aug. 20, the Braves are 22-13, which is one of the top records in baseball.

There's also the complication of this weekend being the final series in Turner Field. The Braves won't want to lose that final series, especially when they have a chance to spoil the Tigers' season. Even though Atlanta was basically eliminated two months ago, the young players have been making an impact in meaningful games since early September, and that's going to continue against the Tigers.

How will Norris and Zimmermann fare in these huge games? Norris is only 23 years old, and Zimmermann is coming off a nagging injury that has derailed his season. If they aren't effective, the Tigers are in trouble.

But with 158 games in the books, the Tigers are still playing meaningful baseball, and that's what September is all about.


About the Author:

Derick is the Lead Digital Editor for ClickOnDetroit and has been with Local 4 News since April 2013. Derick specializes in breaking news, crime and local sports.