KANSAS CITY, MO. – With just nine games left on the regular-season schedule, the Detroit Tigers traveled to Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals in a series that may determine which team wins the American League Central Division.
The Tigers lost two straight games to the last-place Minnesota Twins and the Royals beat White Sox ace Chris Sale Wednesday night to tighten the race to just 1/2 game in the division heading into the series.
Though the Tigers entered with a slim lead over KC, they have their work cut out for them over the weekend. The Royals haven't sniffed the postseason since winning the 1985 World Series in seven games over the St. Louis Cardinals, but the young 2014 team is hungry to end that streak, and this three-game series against Detroit is the best chance to make up ground.
How big is this series in the playoff picture? Even though Detroit and Kansas City aren't among the elite baseball markets, all three games are being broadcast on national TV.
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Here's a breakdown of what to expect throughout the series as the playoff race reaches its peak.
Game 1 FINAL: Tigers 10, Royals 1
Results: Justin Verlander (W), Jason Vargas (L)
Pregame outlook:
Verlander has struggled greatly in his 10th Major League season, owning a 13-12 record and 4.81 ERA through 30 starts. In fact, the former AL MVP has the fourth-worst ERA among qualified pitchers in the league.
Heading into Friday, his performance against the Royals has been even worse.
Verlander has seen KC more than any other team this season, throwing 32 1/3 innings over five starts. In those games the Royals have scored 20 earned runs against the 31-year-old, pinning him with an ERA of 5.57 despite a mediocre 2-2 record.
JV allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts against the Royals, a major improvement over his seven-run effort on June 16.
Similarly, Vargas hasn't had any luck against his division rival, posting a 5.18 ERA in four starts against Detroit this season. Vargas earned two complete games against the Tigers earlier in the year, but allowed seven runs in a start in between.
Overall, Vargas has been much better than Verlander in 2014, posting a 3.41 ERA and an 11-9 record. But in his last two starts the 31-year-old has allowed nine earned runs in 10 2/3 innings, setting up a potential shootout to open this huge series.
Recap:
Verlander, like he has so often in the past, emerged from his struggles to lead the Tigers to victory in a big game. Though the days of JV throwing nine shutout innings appear to have passed, the veteran gave the team 7 1/3 strong innings and helped the group cruise to a 10-1 win.
Detroit set the tone for the series and sent a rare sellout Kauffman Stadium crowd home shell shocked. Royals fans were ready to rock on Friday night, but the Tigers quieted the crowd early and never looked back.
Scoring should be much more difficult Saturday against Big Game James Shields.
Game 2: FINAL: Tigers 3, Royals 2
Results: Max Scherzer (W), James Shields (L), Joe Nathan (S)
Pregame outlook:
Scherzer has been largely effective against the Royals this season, except for one disastrous outing in mid-June. In the worst start of his career, Scherzer allowed 10 earned runs on 10 hits in four innings to the Royals on June 17. The defending Cy Young winner responded with 10 straight starts of allowing three earned runs or less, but that outing has greatly distorted his numbers against KC.
In two other meetings with the Royals, Scherzer is 1-0 with a 0.61 ERA, allowing just 11 hits in 14 2/3 innings.
Shields also struggled against the Tigers in one start, but has been dominant in the season series overall. On May 2 Detroit shelled Shields for seven earned runs on 12 hits. But in three other starts the 32-year-old has twirled three quality starts and posted a 2.21 ERA. Last Wednesday the KC ace helped his team avoid a sweep by shutting out the Tigers for seven innings, allowing just two hits and striking out eight.
Game 2 is likely the game to watch in this series. No matter which team wins game1 of the series, the other team will consider Saturday's matchup a must-win game.
Both teams will feel confident sending their top pitcher to the mound, but even these aces have weaknesses within the division. Scherzer struggles with KC's Alex Gordon, who hits .389 with three home runs off of the righty. In the opposing dugout, Miguel Cabrera has hit .365 with two home runs and eight doubles off of Shields.
Experts will have this game chalked up as a pitcher's duel, but each offense has shown glimpses of breaking out against their rival's top pitcher.
Recap:
The Royals lost a run on a strange play when Salvador Perez failed to tag up from third base on a lineout to second base. Ian Kinsler threw the ball away after catching the line drive, trying to double up the runner on second base. But Perez never touched third base before running home.
Scherzer was electric throughout the game, giving the Tigers seven innings of one-run ball. Joe Nathan was shaky in the 9th inning, allowing runners to reach second and third, but escaped with his 33rd save of the year.
With wins in each of the first two games, Detroit has stretched its AL Central lead to 2.5 games over KC.
Game 3: FINAL: Tigers 2, Royals 5
Results: Jeremy Guthrie (W), Rick Porcello (L), Greg Holland (S)
Pregame outlook:
Certainly the most lopsided matchup of the series comes in the final meeting of the season between the two teams, and leans heavily in Detroit's favor.
Brad Ausmus adjusted the pitching rotation over the weekend to make sure Porcello would start in the most crucial series of the season. Though scheduled starter Kyle Lobstein has done a nice job for the Tigers, Porcello has owned the Royals in three starts this season.
Porcello is 2-1 against Kansas City this season despite three quality starts in which he put the Tigers in great position to win. His 2.18 ERA is largely thanks to the 28 ground ball outs he has produced against the Royals, but he also struck out 16 batters, more than he has against any other team.
The Tigers will not only have Porcello to stand behind, they will also get a chance to face Guthrie, who owns a 10.13 ERA in three starts against Detroit. After earning a victory over the Tigers on June 18, Guthrie got waxed by Cabrera and company in the last two meetings, allowing 14 earned runs in just 6 2/3 innings.
If these two pitchers continue trending in the directions they're currently headed in, then the Tigers have a distinct advantage in the final game of the series.
Recap:
The Tigers couldn't quite finish the sweep to put Kansas City completely out of the race, and that was largely due to the struggles of Porcello. Ausmus moved Porcello up in the rotation to pitch Sunday on regular rest, but the young right-hander faltered and failed to make it through four innings.
Kansas City's bullpen shortened the game to five innings when Guthrie finally ran into some trouble in the sixth inning. Kelvin Herrera came into the game with runners on first and second with just one out and retired five of the six batters he faced. Wade Davis and Holland finished the 8th and 9th innings, respectively, to help the Royals salvage one game in the series.
Detroit leaves KC with a 1.5-game lead in the division. The Royals will finish their suspended game on Monday at 6:05 as the home team in Cleveland.
Wrap-up
Though the Tigers own a 13-6 record against the Royals this season, an inconsistent season has left more work to be done.
Remember, the Royals will complete a suspended game against the Indians Monday, and they trail by two runs in the 10th inning. If that score holds, the Tigers would own a two-game lead over KC with seven games remaining for each team.
The two teams will finish with schedules that look like this:
Detroit:
3 home games vs. Chicago White Sox
4 home games vs. Minnesota Twins
Kansas City:
3 road games vs. Cleveland Indians
4 road games vs. Chicago White Sox
The AL Central race is certainly heating up, and winning two out of three games in the final series in Kansas City was definitely a huge win for Detroit.