DETROIT – Light rain and temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees (4 degrees Celsius for our Canadian friends) made for a pretty dreary afternoon.
The question is: do you prefer this, or snow showers with biting cold wind chill? I ask because that’s exactly what we’ll be trading the rain for, and I’ve been telling you since Monday of last week to get ready for this.
The rain will steadily taper off this evening, with partial clearing immediately afterward. Clouds will start increasing again later tonight, however. Lows in the upper 20s (-2 degrees Celsius). West-southwest wind at 10 to 20 mph.
Mostly cloudy on Wednesday, and we should have a dry day. Highs in the mid 30s (1 to 2 degrees Celsius), although a southwest wind at 10 to 20 mph will make it feel colder. Wednesday’s sunrise is at 7:49 AM, and Wednesday’s sunset is at 5:01 PM.
Cloudy Wednesday night, with lows in the mid 20s (-3 degrees Celsius).
Mostly cloudy, breezy and quite cold on Thursday, with snow showers possible. Highs barely making it to 30 degrees (-1 degree Celsius), and some of you won’t even get that high. West-southwest winds at 15 to 20 mph will keep wind chills in the teens all day long…make sure the kids are dressed properly if they’ll be walking to school or standing at the bus stop. And don’t forget to let the pets come in out of the cold, too.
Mostly cloudy and breezy Thursday night, with scattered snow showers. Lows in the low 20s (-5 degrees Celsius).
Mostly cloudy, breezy and quite cold on Friday, with scattered snow showers. Highs once again struggling to 30 degrees (-1 degree Celsius).
Mostly cloudy Friday night, with lows in the upper teens (-7 degrees Celsius).
Mostly cloudy on Saturday, with highs again barely hitting 30 degrees (-1 degrees Celsius).
Cloudy Saturday night, with light snow possible later at night (our Saturday evening plans should be dry). Lows in the low 20s (-5 degrees Celsius).
Sunday’s storm is still not being handled well by the computer models, and that’s not surprising because the upper level system that will generate this storm is still out over the Pacific. Remember that we don’t have much upper air data over the oceans – our primary source of upper air data comes from weather balloons (called radiosondes) launched twice a day from land-based National Weather Service offices. The system will approach the Pacific Northwest Thursday night, so we should see the beginning of some convergence in the models’ solutions on Friday as those balloons start sampling the environment associated with that upper level feature. That’s why I cannot get specific about this storm yet. It’s not a matter of my being “weak,” as somebody on Twitter asserted this morning. One of my strongest traits as a meteorologist is being very honest about conveying uncertainty. When the models are in significant disagreement like they are this time, I am honest about telling you that it is irresponsible of ANY meteorologist to get specific about what type of precipitation and how much of it we’ll get.
So, are today’s models telling me ANYTHING? Actually, yes. It appears to me that there may be enough cold air in place both at the surface and aloft to keep things all snow for part of our area. The farther north you are, the better the chance to stay all snow. Depending upon which model verifies, the southern part of our area may get a mix of precipitation, and possibly even some rain…it just depends. But based upon this afternoon’s models, I’m leaning toward mostly snow for most of us. Obviously, the key point is trying to nail down that thermal profile. Those that stay all snow may have to do some shoveling, but this DOES NOT look like a major storm at this point. I will continue to keep a close eye on things, and update you here each afternoon through the week.
Later this week: 3rd Annual Climate Change Webcast:
My third annual climate change webcast will be broadcast live with no scripts or teleprompter on ClickOnDetroit.com this Thursday at 12:30 PM. I have some new graphics to show you this year that really help to explain the science and bring it down to a level that most people can understand. And I make my usual promise: I am not an advocate, and do not accept ANY information from advocacy groups. I am not trying to promote a point of view. Rather, I am a fiercely independent scientist who has earned your trust over many years to ONLY bring you science directly from the scientific community. And get your questions ready – you’ll be able to submit them on the Local 4 Facebook page Thursday morning, and I’ll try to answer some of them during the webcast. I give a lot of lectures about global warming, and there is no question in my mind that there is considerable interest in the subject, and a great desire for unbiased, straight information. Please spread the word to your friends and family: anybody can watch live on ClickOnDetroit.com this Thursday at 12:30 PM.