Metro Detroit weather forecast: Flood watch through Friday

Bands of rain to continue

Alert: The National Weather Service has issued a flood warning for Wayne County and Macomb county until further notice. 

DETROIT – I’ve already explained that the large, lumbering cut-off low pressure area aloft will plague us through the weekend, so the persistent bands of rain rotating around it and through our area are no surprise.

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What did surprise me was the sheer amount of rain that fell overnight into Thursday morning.

The heaviest amounts of rain fell in the city of Detroit, with radar estimating over five inches in some spots, which was confirmed when my friend Heather Nabozny, superintendent of grounds at Comerica Park, told me that she measured 5.40 inches in her rain gauge at the ballpark.

READFlooding causes traffic closures, major backups across Metro Detroit

I also received a report from Weather Watcher Steve Sobel in Farmington, who had 2.45 inches of rain as of 1 p.m. Thursday. No wonder so many freeways flooded in the morning, creating one-and-a-half to four-hour commutes for some of you.

I’ve seen these cut-off lows before in my career, but I have never seen one dump as much rain on us as this one, and we’re not done yet. Since the question has been asked, I’ll answer it right up front: no, global warming did not cause the massive cut-off low. It certainly could have developed without the warming, as others have in the past. However, the warming climate has increased the planet’s atmospheric water vapor due to increased evaporation of ocean water, and this is documented fact that cannot be challenged.

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Storm systems use atmospheric water vapor to create precipitation, so this increase has led to an increase in extreme precipitation events, and we’ve already seen plenty of historic ones across the country just this year. Bottom line: global warming did not cause this storm, but very likely made its rainfall more intense.

The band of rain will continue rotating through the area overnight, with lows near 60 degrees (15 degrees Celsius). Northeast winds will blow at 10 to 15 mph.

WATCH: Tim Pamplin on the highway with trapped drivers

Expect more rain bands in the area on Friday, although I think the biggest ones will be late Thursday night through early morning, and late Friday afternoon into Friday night. Showers are still possible, of course, in between these bigger bands. Highs will be in the mid-60s (18-19 degrees Celsius). Northeast winds will blow at 10 to 15 mph.

Friday’s sunrise is at 7:30 a.m., and Friday’s sunset is at 7:16 p.m.

As mentioned above, another heavier band of rain will move through Friday night. Lows will be in the upper 50s (15 degrees Celsius).

Saturday might start with a break from the rain, and maybe even a peek of sun (don’t get your hopes up, but it’s possible). Showers then redevelop by mid-to-late Saturday afternoon. Highs will be in the mid-60s (19 degrees Celsius).

Showers continue Saturday night, with lows in the upper 50s (15 degrees Celsius).

IMAGES: Freeway flooding traps drivers on I-94 near I-75 in Detroit

The big cut-off low finally starts drifting northeast on Sunday, but we’ll still be under its sprawling influence, so I cannot rule out more showers. Highs will be in the upper 60s (20 degrees Celsius).

Then, we'll finally get into a nice stretch of weather, with partly cloudy skies on Monday, and mostly sunny skies Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will generally be around 70 degrees (21 degrees Celsius).

Hurricane Matthew update

As expected, Matthew intensified from Tropical Storm to Hurricane status, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph as of mid-afternoon.

There isn’t much change to yesterday’s forecast track: the storm will continue tracking westward through Saturday, and probably stay far enough north of Aruba so that its impacts aren’t severe.

This weekend, however, the storm should make a 90-degree turn to the north, taking it just east of Jamaica (the worst impact will stay offshore, but the island should have some impact), right over the eastern end of Cuba, and then right through the Bahamas. At this point, it looks as if the storm will stay east of Florida.

Long term, of course, computer models vary on what happens, but two models bring it uncomfortably close to eastern North Carolina, and one even slams New England. But that’s a long ways off, and easily could change dramatically.

if you have travel plans to Aruba this weekend or the Bahamas early next week, be very aware of this hurricane, and if you have plans to be in New England later next week, I’d keep an eye on this, too, just in case.