Clinton extends lead in Michigan over Trump

Trump's support falls after second debate, lewd recordings released

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DETROIT - Donald Trump's support in Michigan is falling, according to a new WDIV/Detroit News poll conducted this week. 

Michiganders surveyed Oct. 10-11 said Trump lost the second presidential debate to Hillary Clinton, and 42.8% of those polled said Trump should step down as the Republican nominee.

READNew poll shows major damage to Donald Trump's numbers in Michigan

A total of 600 likely Michigan voters were surveyed for the poll, which has margin of error of +/-4.0% with a 95% level of confidence. In all, 65% of respondents were interviewed by landline telephone and 35% of respondents were interviewed by cellphone. The survey was commissioned by the Detroit News and WDIV Local 4.

Here's a closer look at the findings: 

Trump perception gets worse 

By a margin of 26.5%-64.5%, Michigan voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.  At 64.5%, these numbers are an increase in his unfavorable numbers to the highest levels of the election cycle. 

Since our last survey, conducted Sept. 27-28, Trump unfavorables have risen from 61.0% to 64.5%, while his favorables have decreased from 30.8% to 26.5%.  More than one-third of Strong Republican voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump. 

Clinton perception steady 

By a margin of 40.3%-49.8%, Michigan voters have an unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton.  These numbers are statistically identical to the early October post-debate survey.  

Clinton leads in two-way, four-way races 

In a two-way race, Clinton holds a commanding 47.2%-33.4% lead on Trump – a lead of 14 points.   Among those voters who are definitely voting for their candidate, Clinton holds a lead of 40.2%-27.3% on Trump – a lead of 13 points among highly committed voters in a two-way race.

After the first debate, Clinton led Trump by a margin of 41.9%-35.1%. Clinton’s numbers have remained statistically unchanged at 42%. But Trump’s support has declined by 4.5%.  As the chart below indicates, the only statistical change from the prior survey has been in Trump’s support. As Election Day approaches, Trump appears to be losing support – not gaining support.

Trump’s support among strong Republican voters has fallen from 79% to 68%, according to poll results. Johnson has increased from just over 10% of strong Republican voters to 14% of strong Republican voters.

In the first post-debate survey, Trump held a 6.5% lead on Clinton among Independent voters. Clinton now holds a 1.5% lead among Independent voters with Trump’s support falling by five points among Independents. 

Here's a graphic showing the results: 

Trump faces historic gender gap 

Trump holds a narrow 37.5%-35.8% lead over Clinton among men, according to the poll, which found the race among men statistically even.

Clinton leads among female voters by a margin of 48.0%-24.6% -- a 23.4% lead. Trump's 24.6% support among Michigan women is historically low. 

Trump: 0% support among African-American voters, 0% in Detroit 

The survey didn't find a single African-American voter supporting Trump, nor did it find a single supporter in the city of Detroit.

Survey numbers among demographic groups and geographic regions have larger margins of error, and it's almost certain Trump has some, though minimal, support among African-American and Detroit voters. However, this marks the third-consecutive survey Trump has polled at 0% in Detroit, signifying an unusually low level of support in Detroit for the Republican nominee. 

Church-goers

There has been a significant swing among voters that attend church services weekly.  In the first post-debate survey, Trump led Clinton 44.8%-34.3% -- a 10.5% lead over Clinton.

But after the second debate, Clinton now leads Trump among weekly church goers by a margin of 40.5%-35.6% -- a 4.9% lead by Clinton.

Clinton has gained six points among weekly church goers.  Trump has lost nine points among weekly church goers.

Trump 'not qualified' increases

In all, 65% of Michigan voters said Trump is not qualified to be president, according to the poll. This represents a 3% increase in unqualified from the survey two weeks ago. A total of 28% of Michigan voters believe Donald Trump is qualified to be president.

Drilling down, 69% of women in both surveys found Trump to be unqualified for president.  But the percentage of men finding Trump unqualified increased from 55.9% to 60.8%. 

And, 23% of women and 33% of men believe Trump is qualified to be President.

On the other side, 56.3% of voters believe Clinton is qualified to be president while 38.7% believe she is not qualified. These numbers have remained statistically unchanged from the post-convention survey in August 2016.  

Poll: Clinton won second debate

The poll found 68.2% of Michigan voters watched the second presidential debate. By a margin of 48.7-25.4%, they said Clinton won the debate over Trump. About 21% of likely voters said neither candidate won. 

Here's a graphic showing the results: 

Poll: Michigan voters say Trump should step down

Voters were asked if Trump should remain as the nominee or step down as the nominee. Here's what they said: 

  • 49.2% of voters said Trump should remain as the nominee.
  • 42.8% of voters said Trump should step down as the nominee.
  • 24% of Strong Republican voters believed Trump should step down as the party nominee. 
  • 50.3% of female voters believed Trump should step down as the nominee. 

Here's a graphic showing the results: 

Democrats lead Republicans

Democrats now lead Republicans in a generic ballot test 42.3%-35.2% -- a seven-point lead for generic Democratic candidates, the poll found.

Republicans hold a six-point lead among men 40.6%-34.7%. But Democrats hold a 19-point lead among women 49.4%-30.1%.

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