ANN ARBOR, Mich. – When Penn State and Michigan play in football, it should be a competitive and entertaining game. Both programs have long histories, huge fan bases and plenty of talented football players. But this weekend's game isn't expected to be particularly close.
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The Nittany Lions travel to Ann Arbor as nearly 20-point underdogs, right around the range Colorado was in a week ago. As of Thursday afternoon, Michigan is favored by 18.5 points.
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Will Michigan actually pound Penn State to kick off the Big Ten season? The No. 4 Wolverines are certainly a more talented team, but this matchup has provided instant classics throughout the last decade. Here are three reasons Michigan could run away from Penn State on Saturday.
1. Michigan's ground attack
You probably just threw your hands up in disgust. "What? How can Michigan's running game be an advantage?"
The Wolverines have struggled to run the ball up the middle this season, but Jim Harbaugh's ability to get ball carriers to the edge could be a huge problem for Penn State.
In their game against Pittsburgh, the Nittany Lions allowed 341 rushing yards to eight different ball carriers. On Saturday, they'll see even more creativity in the running game.
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De'Veon Smith showed signs of life against Colorado with a few big rushes between the tackles. When the Buffaloes took that away, Jehu Chesson and Jabrill Peppers burned them on the outside. Michigan has 14 players with positive rushing yards this season, including bruisers like Smith and Khalid Hill and playmakers like Chris Evans and Eddie McDoom.
Penn State put a much greater emphasis on stopping the run last weekend against Temple, and held starting running back Jahad Thomas to 52 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries. Michigan will give the Penn State defensive line a much different look, and if the Wolverines get an early lead, the running game will take over.
2. Defensive reinforcements
Colorado made Michigan's defense look mediocre for 30 minutes Saturday, but if Jourdan Lewis and other injured players return this weekend, Don Brown's unit will have a completely different look.
Lewis didn't play a snap during the nonconference season, but Harbaugh told reporters that he was trending toward a return against Penn State. If the All-American picks up where he left off last season, he'll give the secondary an enormous lift.
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Channing Stribling has done a nice job at the No. 1 cornerback spot, but when Lewis returns, he can go back to being a high-end No. 2 cornerback. The domino effect will drop Jeremy Clark to the No. 3 spot, and the secondary will settle into its 2015 roles.
Taco Charlton also has a chance to return to the lineup after being injured against Hawaii. Michigan has missed Charlton's pressure off the edge, and it will be especially important against an up-tempo offense like Penn State's. Charlton's absence has helped Michigan develop its depth on the defensive line, especially breaking in freshman Rashan Gary. Charlton would give Brown even more depth at an important position.
3. Michigan got better, Penn State got worse
Since their last meeting in State College -- a 28-16 Michigan win on Nov. 21, 2015 -- Michigan and Penn State have been moving in completely different directions.
The Nittany Lions have yet to eclipse seven wins under head coach James Franklin, and a shaky start during the nonconference season doesn't bode well for their chances to end that streak in 2016. Penn State lost its last four games of 2015 by an average of 15 points and struggled against Pittsburgh and Temple the last two weeks.
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Meanwhile, Michigan closed out 2015 with a 41-7 blowout win over Florida in the Citrus Bowl and kept rolling through the nonconference schedule, winning three games by a combined score of 159-45. Michigan's returning talent, combined with a top five recruiting class, landed the Wolverines in the top 10 in the country.
Penn State is capable of winning in Ann Arbor, especially with its dynamic no-huddle offense. But Michigan is a much better team, and if it plays its best game, the Nittany Lions face a steep uphill battle.