GLENDALE, Ariz. – As the clock hit double zeros in Detroit's 23-0 preseason finale win over the Buffalo Bills in late August, the Lions turned their attention to the 2014 regular season with one realistic goal in mind: Return to the playoffs.
After the Lions broke an 11-year playoff drought by picking up a wildcard spot in 2011, they put together two strong first halves only to collapse in the second halves, finishing 0-8 in 2012 and 2-6 in 2013. For a fan base that suffered through the league's first-ever 0-16 season in 2008, wasting hot starts proved even more frustrating.
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But here we are, mired in another cold November in Detroit, the team is 7-2 and its goals have changed. Clearly, the Lions still have work to do, but missing the playoffs at this point would top even their most impressive disappearing acts from years past.
So, let's take a look at the rest of the games ahead. Lions fans would be hard pressed to argue with losses in New England or Green Bay, but can reasonably expect the first-place Lions to beat the likes of Chicago, Tampa Bay and Minnesota with relative ease.
Read: 3 keys for Lions against first-place Cardinals Sunday
All three remaining home games come against far inferior competition. The Bears are riding a three-game losing streak in which they've been outscored by a combined score of 133-51, and that locker room is going up in flames. Detroit should have no problem with Mark Tressman's team in Ford Field, and even the road game at Soldier Field looks less daunting, considering Chicago's 0-3 home record.
Sandwiched between two matchups with the Bears come home games against Tampa Bay and Minnesota, teams with a combined overall record of 5-13 and just 3-6 on the road.
Translation: If the Lions are as good as their 7-2 record suggests, they'll win all four of those games.
But even the best teams in the NFL struggle to beat the Patriots and Packers on the road. These two teams have put together a spotless 9-0 record combined on their respective stomping grounds this season, so Detroit would have to play a near-perfect game to win.
That brings us to this week's matchup.
If the Lions' season plays out like it should (though counting on that may be a formula for disaster), then the matchup against the Cardinals could mark the difference between 11-5 and 12-4. With Carson Palmer's injury thrusting backup Drew Stanton into the starting role, the Lions have gone from obvious underdog to tentative... favorites? A win would vault the Lions to the top of the NFC, an unfamiliar position for fans.
Click here to examine Detroit's current playoff resume
Is it realistic to expect this type of finish? Of course it is, but that doesn't mean the team won't falter once again. With seven wins in their first nine games, the Lions have put themselves in a position where simply beating bad teams should be enough to make the playoffs. But doing more than that bare minimum, taking down the Cardinals, could even bring a playoff game to Detroit.
You might be thinking, "is the difference between 11 and 12 wins significant?" The answer to that question lies in the way Green Bay has turned around its season.
Despite a 1-2 start, the Packers are 6-3 and considered favorites to land atop the NFC North Division, thanks largely to a favorable schedule down the stretch. Of the seven remaining games, only three are on the road, none of which are against winning teams. Minnesota, Buffalo and Tampa Bay will host Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in the coming months, all in games Green Bay could win.
Assuming the Packers don't fall to 1-8 Tampa Bay or the Vikings, who haven't beaten a team better than 3-6 this season, the matchup in Buffalo becomes a big game. The Bills have fought their way through a grueling schedule, playing six games against winning teams and coming out on top just twice. A 2-3 home record for Buffalo makes the matchup much more favorable for the Packers on Dec. 14.
That leaves four home games for the Packers, three of which come against teams with seven wins. On Sunday the Eagles visit Lambeau Field without their starting quarterback Nick Foles. Further down the road, the Patriots, Falcons and Lions will make the trip to Green Bay, where Aaron Rodgers owns a 28-2 record since the start of the 2010 season. Taking into account that Mark Sanchez is starting for Philly, Atlanta's season is crumbling and Detroit historically struggles in Lambeau, the Nov. 30 game against New England represents the Packers' greatest test.
Tom Brady has only traveled to Green Bay once in his career: A 35-0 pounding of the Packers in 2006. Though Rodgers' only two losses at home in the last five seasons have come to the Dolphins in overtime in 2010 and the eventual Super Bowl runner-up 49ers in 2012, Brady and his Patriots will have a realistic shot to hand the Packers a home loss next month.
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What does this mean? The Packers have a legitimate chance to win six of their last seven games, which would put them at 12-4 on the year. If so, the Lions' chances to match that number rely largely on Sunday's game in Arizona.
If Stanton leads the Cardinals to a win over his former team, the Lions are still in great position to make a playoff push. But regardless of how the Packers perform, the Lions would make a major statement by traveling to University of Phoenix Stadium and knocking off the only one-loss team in the NFL.