DETROIT – It's been a beautiful day -- the proverbial "calm before the storm."
And we'll keep the tranquil conditions into the evening hours, so you have no issues there. Rain will develop between midnight and 2 a.m., and this first band of rain is nothing to worry about. In fact, we still need rain, so this is a good thing. Temperatures will initially drop into the mid 40s (7° Celsius for our Canadian neighbors), and then rise to near 50° (10° Celsius) by the time you leave for work Thursday morning. Wind will blow from a mainly south direction, and increase to 15 to 25 mph by later tonight.
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Conditions will be deteriorating late tonight into early Thursday morning. Don't forget to check in with meteorologist Brandon Roux on Local 4 News Today starting at 4:30 a.m. to get the latest before you head off for work.
High Wind Warning on Thursday
The National Weather Service has issued a High Wind Warning Thursday for all southeast Michigan counties EXCEPT for Sanilac County, where a Wind Advisory has been issued (but still stay alert, as you are right next to the Warning area). A very strong wind field aloft will work in concert with a sharp change in pressure behind a cold front to generate very strong wind.
There are two main mechanisms to watch for potential wind gusts over 50 mph:
1) The approaching cold front will cross our area roughly between 7 a.m. and 10 a.m. Although we likely will not see the severe storms that the Plains states will get this afternoon and evening, even "routine" showers along the cold front will be capable of producing 50-60 mph wind gusts due to the strong winds aloft (less than one mile above the surface, wind will be blowing at 60 mph).
2) Once the cold front moves through, the tight pressure gradient behind the front will create strong continuous winds of 30 mph or greater, with gusts near 50 mph. Any showers that develop Thursday afternoon will be capable of pulling down that strong wind aloft and further enhance the magnitude of those gusts.
Remember that a thunderstorm wind that reaches 58 mph or greater is considered officially severe, and we'll be within shouting distance of that on Thursday. Last Friday morning's cold front (the one that spawned three tornadoes in the Thumb) had gusts between 40 and 50 mph, and that caused about 28,000 customers to lose power. We could possibly see a larger number of power outages on Thursday.
Temperatures Thursday should hold nearly steady in the low 50s (11° Celsius), before falling by mid to late afternoon. Thursday's sunrise is at 7:20 p.m., and Thursday's sunset is at 5:15 p.m.
It will continue to be very windy Thursday night, with lows in the upper 30s (4° Celsius).
Friday forecast:
Mostly cloudy and still very windy on Friday (wind could still gust near 40 mph), with scattered rain and snow showers possible. Highs in the mid 40s (7° Celsius).
Mostly to partly cloudy Friday night, with lows in the mid 30s (3° Celsius).
Mostly sunny on Saturday, with highs in the upper 40s (9° Celsius).
Mostly clear Saturday night, with lows in the mid 30s (3° Celsius).
Mostly sunny, and becoming breezy and warmer on Sunday, with highs in the mid to upper 50s (14° Celsius).
Partly cloudy and breezy on Monday, with highs in the upper 50s (15° Celsius).
Then get ready for another storm with more rain (that we need) and wind (that we don't) sometime in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe.